Woodgrain box set predictions
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Post Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:07 pm 
 

So I've got a really nice 3rd+ printing woodgrain box set.  Not much interest in selling it at this point but I've been pondering, what's the long term investment potential in these?  

Think if I sold it today or twenty years from now there would be a big price difference?

Just trying to figure out what the future holds and would like your thoughts.
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Post Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:21 pm 
 

Grimtale wrote:So I've got a really nice 3rd+ printing woodgrain box set.  Not much interest in selling it at this point but I've been pondering, what's the long term investment potential in these?  

Think if I sold it today or twenty years from now there would be a big price difference?

Just trying to figure out what the future holds and would like your thoughts.
-Grimtale


20 years is outside of the realm of any accurate prediction. I believe we can judge things reasonably in terms of 2,3 or 5 years. I don't anticipate anything except a steady increase in the selling price in that time (outside of national or global economic collapse making all luxury goods of little value). There is a reasonable possibility of Woodgrains doubling in value in 5 years simply because of the limited number existing and the current selling price putting many of these in the hands of long term collectors and out of the marketplace.

  


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Post Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:52 pm 
 

JasonZavoda wrote:putting many of these in the hands of long term collectors and out of the marketplace.


Do you see the number of collectors increasing in this market?  I guess that's my big concern.  I don't see many new people getting into D&D.  Most of the younger crowd is chasing other stuff.  They might relate this stuff to being the birth of RPGs but they are more likely to collect MTG cards, Harry Potter and the like...

Maybe I've got a dim view of the world... that's what I get for growing up in a dungeon :-)

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Post Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:22 pm 
 

Grimtale wrote:
Do you see the number of collectors increasing in this market?  I guess that's my big concern.  I don't see many new people getting into D&D.  Most of the younger crowd is chasing other stuff.  They might relate this stuff to being the birth of RPGs but they are more likely to collect MTG cards, Harry Potter and the like...

Maybe I've got a dim view of the world... that's what I get for growing up in a dungeon :-)

-Grim


The kind of collectors who would be most likely interested in a woodgrain are those returning to the hobby, many completely missed the CCG era. There are a good number of collectors out there but it comes down to the ones who have the money to put thousands of dollars into their collection. Even though this is a bad economy there are enough collectors to keep prices fairly high. If in the next five years the economy improves I think will we see the price of the truly rare items increase.

Very tenuous I know but I do believe that in the next five years we will see the US and World economy improve, and a rise in collectable prices (and if not I have a good stockpile of booze to trade, and my shotgun as an economic hedge).

  


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Post Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 10:08 pm 
 

I agree completely Jason. I've only really been into collecting a short while, and I'm still in the very early stages of building a collection. I'm also still building up a budget, so that woodgrain will stay out of my hands for a few more years I would imagine.

  


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:09 am 
 

You can't really go wrong with a nice woodgrain.

I see woodgrains as being one of the collectibles that will outpace others in value over the years simply because of - aside from their intrinsic value - the difficulty in reproducing/counterfeiting one compared to, say, an Inverness, Tamo, Tsojoconth, Fazzlewood, or even a Chainmail.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:35 am 
 

bombadil wrote:You can't really go wrong with a nice woodgrain.

I see woodgrains as being one of the collectibles that will outpace others in value over the years simply because of - aside from their intrinsic value - the difficulty in reproducing/counterfeiting one compared to, say, an Inverness, Tamo, Tsojoconth, Fazzlewood, or even a Chainmail.


I would agree with the above.  Except one thing has always bugged me, the value of a Fazzlewood. Why?  I'll never own one unless I could get it for half or less the selling price.  A tournament module of a non-descript solo D&D module years later (O1).  Unlike Inverness (C2), Tamo (C1), or Tsoj (S4), it wasn't retconned into Greyhawk at a later period, isn't on anyone's top 10 list (Not even top 20 list), and isn't waxed about nostalgically by older players or DMs.   And, unlike the similarly reviled ST1 (whose readers all agree is a subpar module), it doesnt have the added cachet of a limited edition giveaway in the UK that was never reprinted.

Maybe I'm just being naive....if a cache or, say, tournament editions of Ed Greenwoods "Into the Forgotten Realms" or (just a random dungeon) X6's Quagmire were found, they would sell in the $1000+ range? Can someone explain this to me?

And on topic, nothing can go bad with putting aside a woodgrain. They'll always have some value, and should steadily increase in value.  Years ago, collector's scoffed that something like a Spiderman #1 would ever be worth more than a few grand. As Jason said its hard to predict a market more than 5 years up the road.

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:37 am 
 

I predict that I will mostly likely never own one. Unless it just happens to fall out of the sky and onto my lap!!   :)


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 11:34 am 
 

I'm a bit newer at this than most... my take on collecting as a hobby (vs. collecting as an investment) is:

first, collect what you like... for me, that means the games I played as a kid, or the games I remember but didn't play for some reason, or newer books that evoke simpler games/rules/times.  

then,  I think about the 'it' factor... items that are iconic, special, hisotrically important, and (least important to me) rare are what I want to collect... if there's a cool story behind the item, or a particular significance to the piece, so much the better.

and finally, having been actively collecting for about a year-and-a-half, I've realized the most special items are those that were mine bitd, the books and games I kept over the years... so, yes if I had a woodgrain that I gamed with, and somehow managed to hang on to it, I think that would be the cornerstone of my collection.

I think collecting as an investment is tricky and beyond me... for me, it's building and enjoying a collection that's its own reward... probably, the value of the most collectible items like woodies will increase, but if I worried about that, I would enjoy the pastime much less  :D


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 11:46 am 
 

Considering the importance of the woodgrain boxset I imagne it will continue to be a sought after collectable for a long time.  It was the start of the Fantasy RPG genre.  While other more obsure items (ie fazzlwood) may wane over the years the woodgrain should stand above all. :)


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:09 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:Except one thing has always bugged me, the value of a Fazzlewood. Why?  I'll never own one unless I could get it for half or less the selling price.  A tournament module of a non-descript solo D&D module years later (O1).  Unlike Inverness (C2), Tamo (C1), or Tsoj (S4), it wasn't retconned into Greyhawk at a later period, isn't on anyone's top 10 list (Not even top 20 list), and isn't waxed about nostalgically by older players or DMs.   And, unlike the similarly reviled ST1 (whose readers all agree is a subpar module), it doesnt have the added cachet of a limited edition giveaway in the UK that was never reprinted.


Fazzle is a big fizzle, and the tourney version is verbatim the same as O1 so you're missing nothing in substance if you already have O1.  IMO, it's the most overrated D&D collectible.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:35 pm 
 

mandalaymoon wrote:
Fazzle is a big fizzle, and the tourney version is verbatim the same as O1 so you're missing nothing in substance if you already have O1.  IMO, it's the most overrated D&D collectible.


So I'm not alone, thanks!  :D   I've thought the same thing for many years.  One day someone is going to say this "out loud", in an Emperor Has No Clothes fashion, and the value will plummet to $300 or so (still too high, IMO).  

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:38 pm 
 

Blackmoor wrote:Considering the importance of the woodgrain boxset I imagne it will continue to be a sought after collectable for a long time.  It was the start of the Fantasy RPG genre.  While other more obsure items (ie fazzlwood) may wane over the years the woodgrain should stand above all. :)


Jeff makes a good point. Certain items have a historical background, such as a Woodgrain, Dragon #1, POTVQ, Orange B3, etc.  Items like a Fazzlewood or ST1 are collectible by their rarity alone, not by any effect they have had on the hobby.  I'd predict those types of items to stay the same or perhaps even fall in value as time goes on when compared to the more historically significant items.

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:30 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:
Jeff makes a good point. Certain items have a historical background, such as a Woodgrain, Dragon #1, POTVQ, Orange B3, etc.  Items like a Fazzlewood or ST1 are collectible by their rarity alone, not by any effect they have had on the hobby.  I'd predict those types of items to stay the same or perhaps even fall in value as time goes on when compared to the more historically significant items.

Mike B.

I'd go with that. Makes sense.

That said, the number of collectors for D&D will drop steadily in the future, and so will the number of available items for purchase. I think we are living through a boom era in which many people cash in on things they have as internet commerse has taken off. But I think as time goes on and rares coming onto the market from household attics deminished, we'll see rares sitting in privat collections and being passed directly from collector to collector, and only really coming generally available as one or other collector dies or hits hard times and needs to liquidate his position.

These things will keep the values of rares hitting the market from unknown sources high; because, let's face it, if you can afford to have a small collection of woodgrains and the whole gamut of rares sitting on your shelves, you are already of suitable means that you do not need to sell them to buy whatever it is that you want.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:09 pm 
 

I would very much like a Woodgrain as well as a Pharoah and Rahasia so include me in the lot of people who will try and get these things someday. Art takes priority though and I'll likely only be able to trade art for those items in the future...

  

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 11:45 pm 
 

I agree with some of the statements above.
Woodgrain Box Sets are not going to decrease in value any time soon.
If ever.


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Post Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:43 am 
 

Tharizdun wrote:I would very much like a Woodgrain as well as a Pharoah and Rahasia so include me in the lot of people who will try and get these things someday. Art takes priority though and I'll likely only be able to trade art for those items in the future...

So, one of the holy grails of your chosen field must be the original unseen artwork for Eye of the Dragon which TRH still has in his possession?


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Post Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:48 am 
 

Grimtale wrote:So I've got a really nice 3rd+ printing woodgrain box set.  Not much interest in selling it at this point but I've been pondering, what's the long term investment potential in these?  

Don't think of it as an investment, though it will likely go up in value.

You would do far better financially taking the same amount of money and putting it into soundly managed mutual funds, bonds, or stock.

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Post Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2009 3:17 pm 
 

So, one of the holy grails of your chosen field must be the original unseen artwork for Eye of the Dragon which TRH still has in his possession?


Nope :wink:

My grails are "Northwatch" -Keith Parkinson (unavailable)

A Caldwell which is faaar too expensive for my tastes right now.

A classic oldschool piece (which I recently got) Unfortunately I can't say which one as I'm getting more of the same...

A painting I recently asked the artist about.

The trouble with my hobby is that you can only openly talk about your own collection or your desire to own pieces that you're never going to be able to get. Otherwise you will give other people ideas  :evil: - This happened to me with a local shitbag...

Don't read any further Beaster...

Oh yeah, "Saving the Best for Last" by Dan Horne... I recently got the address of the owner of that painting.  So... even if it's "unavailable" it's still available :twisted:

  

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Post Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:12 pm 
 

Tharizdun wrote:"Saving the Best for Last" by Dan Horne...


That is a cool painting.  I would be very curious how long it takes an artist to paint something like this.  My only insight into this is from watching that guy with the big fro on Sat mornings painting land\seascapes  {that must have been 20 years ago}.  They were pretty darn good for 30 mins worth of work.

  
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