3.5 E Mini Bubble?
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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:30 am 
 

I've been watching the sale of 3.5 edition D&D Player's Handbooks for the last few weeks and I'm wondering if that "bubble" has burst?  For over two weeks it seemed that even poor condition PHBs were selling at or over cover price and now they seem to be settling out.

Are mini bubbles like this common?  Are they simply another trend to watch for or are they some kind of self fulfilling prophecy (someone decides that they're hard to find, spreads a little panic to plant the seed, and instant inflation ensues until the panic is disproved)?  

I had planned on picking up a couple of them if I found them for a decent price (10-15 used bookstore finds) but am now happy that I wasn't able to put my hands on any extra copies.  I'm sure it will run it's course again but I don't know if I have the kind of patience required to wait for the trend to crop back up.

It doesn't seem to have had an effect on other 3.5E book prices though (unless sold as a lot) which I find even more puzzling.

Am I reading this right or am I completely off base with this idea?

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:18 pm 
 

Yes, little bubbles appear now and then, where there will be a sudden rush on things that make no sense, and often following a particular sale -- for example, look at the sale history of Upper Works. Started off low, even on eBay and then an explosion in price, and now seems to potentially dipping back to an "assumed normal." This happens for a couple reasons, I think --

1) someone sells something for a good price
2) other people see it sold for that price and want to cash in too
3) new collectors or people who simply don't know any better assume that that must be the value since all these copies are selling at the same rate (or close)
4) The Acaeum talks about it (this not necessarily a factor in any, or every, sale, but there does appear to be "an Acaeum effect" at times)
5) people who really wanted the item get the item and then things settle back down

The same thing happens with Magic: The Gathering cards (or did) when a new set would be released -- people would clamor for specific cards and the value of that would rise, and then after a month or so, even the rares would be common.


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:39 pm 
 

In the long run, value will be determined by supply and demand.  I can't imagine there is a true lack of supply of 3.5E books.  However, 6 months ago, you could probably get any of the core 3.5 rules direct from Amazon, at B&N, FLGS, etc.  Those sources have for the most part dried up (though not entirely, I am sure), and now they are mostly on eBay, Amazon marketplace, and the occasional FLGS.  That is a significant change in supply, which certainly affected prices.  This is in turn tempered by a significant drop in demand, as many players switch to 4E.

While not as readily available, there were still tons printed and sold, so the long term supply is plentiful - there are multiple copies of this put up on eBay every single day.  I just can't see this being a long term collectible, as there are too many of them out there.

  


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 2:34 pm 
 

Grug Greyskin wrote:In the long run, value will be determined by supply and demand.  I can't imagine there is a true lack of supply of 3.5E books.

With Paizo's Pathfinder wheeling out this summer, most WotC 3.5 should see a plateau in pricing since all the 3rd party publishers will likely be switching to Pathfinder as their core ruleset for new OGL/3e products. I can't imagine the 3.5 core books staying at exaggerated high prices into the fall.

  

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 6:29 pm 
 

SoulCatcher78 wrote:I've been watching the sale of 3.5 edition D&D Player's Handbooks for the last few weeks and I'm wondering if that "bubble" has burst?  For over two weeks it seemed that even poor condition PHBs were selling at or over cover price and now they seem to be settling out.

I arrived in the middle of this 3.5 Core Rules price bubble.  I do not know when it started.  It does appear to be contracting.

On Amazon, 3.5 PHBs are selling slightly below cover price.  3.5 DMGs and MMs have dropped to around $20.  Depending on how many 3.5 books each seller has, the Amazon copies could remain at that price for days, weeks, or months.  eBay prices have also declined in the past week.  Theoretically, eBay prices should be a more accurate measure of demand.  If eBay prices stay low, then that's the new price.

As a WAG, I think that summer vacation will increase prices if Pathfinder d21 stalls out and 4E adoption does not increase.  What's left for most gamers but 3.5?  Existing 3.5 players will recruit new players, and players need PHBs.  My WAG ignores Castles and Crusades, OSRIC, Lejendary Adventures, and other small systems.

SoulCatcher78 wrote:Are mini bubbles like this common?

Yep.  Serleran pretty much summed it up.

Grug Greyskin wrote:While not as readily available, there were still tons printed and sold, so the long term supply is plentiful - there are multiple copies of this put up on eBay every single day. I just can't see this being a long term collectible, as there are too many of them out there.

The 3.5 Core Rules are not collectible now.  A shrinkwrapped, slipcased set may be worth good money in the distant future; separate core rulebooks in unused condition may be collectible in the decades beyond that.  Realistically, the supply of 3.5 Core Rules is too large.  That is not a bad thing; that means D&D, whatever its edition, will be around for a long time to come.

  


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 7:29 pm 
 

I suppose we might have to wait as long as September to see what effect *if any* Pathfinder has on 3.5 sales.  Aren't they planning on a hardback rule book launch somewhere near Gen Con?  

I will keep a sharp eye out for them in the future but as of now they just dont seem to be showing the ROI that they were 2 weeks ago.  I'm probably safer sticking to what I know better (1st and 2nd Edition stuff) for now before getting bit (on the hindquarters) by the speculator bug.

Now if I could just figure out how to ship to Canada for less I could double my biddging pool!

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 9:33 pm 
 

SoulCatcher78 wrote:I will keep a sharp eye out for them in the future but as of now they just dont seem to be showing the ROI that they were 2 weeks ago.  I'm probably safer sticking to what I know better (1st and 2nd Edition stuff) for now before getting bit (on the hindquarters) by the speculator bug.

Truer words were never spoken.  I don't know that anyone here but you and I have jumped in to buy and resell 3.5 Core Rulebooks.  They never were collectible, and they are no longer profitable to resell.

Prices could rise again for no apparent reason.  The phase of the moon?  An elaborate April Fool's joke?  *shrug*

  

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:29 pm 
 

JohnGaunt wrote:...Pathfinder d21...


That was an April Fools joke.

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:30 pm 
 

Plaag wrote:That was an April Fools joke.ShaneG.

hehe nice one :) :)

  

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:46 pm 
 

Plaag wrote:That was an April Fools joke.

ShaneG.

:oops:   I bought that one hook, line, and sinker.

  


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 11:01 pm 
 

I think it was a perfect storm of three factors:

1) Speculators buying up old stock, inflating prices, and reselling;
2) 3.5E Bubble Time - just coincedental;
3) 4E purchasers who sold their books to afford the new ones - hated it - sold their 4E books, and now want the familiarity of 3.5E back in their lives.

However, I could be wrong.


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 11:19 pm 
 

jkason wrote:I think it was a perfect storm of three factors:

1) Speculators buying up old stock, inflating prices, and reselling;
2) 3.5E Bubble Time - just coincedental;
3) 4E purchasers who sold their books to afford the new ones - hated it - sold their 4E books, and now want the familiarity of 3.5E back in their lives.

However, I could be wrong.

That makes as much sense as anything.  I don't follow 3.5 or 4E prices or forums; maybe other reasons can be found there.

I also don't follow Pathfinder, so I may fall for d22 next year.   :oops:

  

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Post Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2009 3:46 am 
 

JohnGaunt wrote:That makes as much sense as anything.  I don't follow 3.5 or 4E prices or forums; maybe other reasons can be found there.

I also don't follow Pathfinder, so I may fall for d22 next year.   :oops:


Please give them credit, it'll be Pathfinder 4d (still not 4e) :wink:

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Post Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 7:00 am 
 

In Italy this trend seems to be picking steam: I regularly see the core rulebook for D&D 3.5 selling at what I consider very high prices (for example a Players Handbook recently broke the 20 euros barrier) considering they are still available brand new. I'm doing quite good sales selling them at full price (30 euros). But I was told by the Italian publisher that WotC wishes them to stopping selling ANY D&D 3.5 books...

  


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Post Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 8:51 am 
 

Alexander1968 wrote:In Italy this trend seems to be picking steam: I regularly see the core rulebook for D&D 3.5 selling at what I consider very high prices (for example a Players Handbook recently broke the 20 euros barrier) considering they are still available brand new. I'm doing quite good sales selling them at full price (30 euros). But I was told by the Italian publisher that WotC wishes them to stopping selling ANY D&D 3.5 books...


WotC pressuring the publisher to stop makes sense since they want to see everyone transition to the new product line (no money for us or the publisher but plenty for them).  Depending on how their contracts are worded though, it might be futile for WotC to try.

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Post Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:10 am 
 

3.5E manuals will be ten a penny soon enough.
4E manuals will be worthless as WoTC release 4.5E within 18 months to try to recover from their major fuck up.
We saw this with both 2E which practically sunk TSR, and 3E which was horrific verging on offensive, so why the company continues to listen to boardroom bean counters and executives is anyone's guess. Still, maybe one day someone will do good with the D&D name.
We can all blame Buck Rogers at the end of the day. If he hadn't fed her so much, maybe she wouldn't have had that chip on her shoulder, or she much to prove.


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Post Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 10:18 am 
 

mbassoc2003 wrote:3.5E manuals will be ten a penny soon enough.
4E manuals will be worthless as WoTC release 4.5E within 18 months to try to recover from their major fuck up.
We saw this with both 2E which practically sunk TSR, and 3E which was horrific verging on offensive, so why the company continues to listen to boardroom bean counters and executives is anyone's guess. Still, maybe one day someone will do good with the D&D name.
We can all blame Buck Rogers at the end of the day. If he hadn't fed her so much, maybe she wouldn't have had that chip on her shoulder, or she much to prove.


3E horrific?

You 1st Edition Eliteist you!!!     :wink:

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Post Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:49 pm 
 

I think I popped the bubble, lol.




** expired eBay auction **




I couldn't pass up the possibility of a +4 chickmagnet yellow duct tape case  :lol: *





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Post Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:54 pm 
 

Yellow duct tape slip sleeve cases are all the rage.


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:55 pm 
 

SoulCatcher78 wrote:I think I popped the bubble, lol.


** expired eBay auction **


I couldn't pass up the possibility of a +4 chickmagnet yellow duct tape case  :lol: *


*the description is worth the read!


Yep, three like-new Core Rulebooks for $11 apiece pops that bubble.  You should still be able to resell the PHB for close to $30.  On Amazon the DMG has gone lower, and the MM is lower still.   :x

  
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