AD&D Silver Anniversary Edition
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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 1:57 pm 
 

Yeah, I agree, Brian, it's not a worthy comparison, especially since I can't remember how I worked out those numbers in the first place!

Maybe I was assuming 1000 existing shrinked copies (about 20%?) still in existence, then estimated the rate of decay based on uptake by collectors and/or people opening the shrink to sell off L3s and the like.  

I just don't recall...

In the end, though, a shrinkwrapped copy of anything should eventually become pretty rare.


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:01 pm 
 

Sorry, but I don't find one auction(of a particularly nice set at that) as  being applicable as indicating that demand is getting stronger.


One auction.. but over the last 3 years only 3 10th Anniversaries have been sold. That's 25% of the auctions over the last 4 years! As such, I think one auction in which many people bid is pretty representative of the current state of demand.

 On top of the fact that the 10th Anniversary Set had 1/5th the print run(many of which may have actually been pulped like a ton of other stuff from the mid 1980's) and it was also issued almost 25 years ago.   At the time it sold the 10 Anniversary Collectors Set was not considered a Collectors item at all, as a matter of fact it was sold as and recognized as just a fancy way of TSR getting rid of over-stock.  I can realistically see a majority of those people who did actually purchase sets at the time tossing the box in the trash, because it is in fact a big bulky box made of cheap fake leather, that takes up far more room that it should.   The fact that the box is open ended makes it almost useless for anything else a person could dream up for it.  


I don't disagree with any of this. But its also irrelevant.

Just because something is rare doesn't mean it is necessarily highly valued. Moreover, just because something isn't rare doesn't mean it can't be highly valued. Life is full of examples.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:12 pm 
 

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:One auction.. but over the last 3 years only 3 10th Anniversaries have been sold. That's 25% of the auctions over the last 4 years! I think one auction, in which many people bid is pretty representative of the current state of demand.  


Thats really not a surprise. I hate to break it to you cuz, but two people do not make a trend. Also, ignoring the fact the set in question was in particularly nice condition is being naive at best.  You want an example of that in action, fine here's one:

Three VF or better 1st print Woodgrains have sold in full term Ebay auctions in the last 12 to 18 months. All of them have at least exceeded $4000.  These sets also had a print run of 1000.  I just tried to sell a set msyelf tat was in pretty bad condition, that didn't even meet the reserve of $899(which is less than Fair condition's value on the site).  If rarity and desirabilty were the sole factors in an auction, then my set would have sold easily for more than my reserve.  I can gaurantee you that if I would sell my own 10th Anniversary Set that I would be hard pressed to get any more than $225 to $250 for it. its not completely hammered, but its certainly not perfect either.

The fact is that people pony up a lot extra when the condition of a particular item is premium, regardless of the rarity or "desirablity"


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:17 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:The fact is that people pony up a lot extra when the condition of a particular item is premium, regardless of the rarity or "collectability"


I'll second that.  And third it, and fourth it.

There is NOTHING like condy to drive up the bidding on a rare (at least when I'm involved  :D ).


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:46 pm 
 

Thats really not a surprise. I hate to break it to you cuz, but two people do not make a trend.


Six different bidders were willing to pay more than $500 for this item.. that seems to suggest the demand for this item is very strong. Moreover, as with most D&D auctions, two or three people will end up driving up the bid because the D&D collecting community is fairly small all things considered.. this happens even with Woodgrain sets.

Three VF or better 1st print Woodgrains have sold in full term Ebay auctions in the last 12 to 18 months. All of them have at least exceeded $4000.  These sets also had a print run of 1000.  I just tried to sell a set msyelf tat was in pretty bad condition, that didn't even meet the reserve of $899(which is less than Fair condition's value on the site).  If rarity and desirabilty were the sole factors in an auction, then my set would have sold easily for more than my reserve.  I can gaurantee you that if I would sell my own 10th Anniversary Set that I would be hard pressed to get any more than $225 to $250 for it. its not completely hammered, but its certainly not perfect either.


Surely the desirability of an item is in part dependent on its condition? What you've described seems perfectly normal. So I'm not in disagreement that people will pay premiums for items in very nice condition. [Of course, the Acaeum's values seem to omit this element, as listed numbers almost always go up in a linear fashion even for the rarest of items. So either the Acaeum is not reflecting buyer behavior, or buyers actually don't demonstrate this tendency very often. Well, whatever, this is not really related to the point I was making.]

Ultimately, I can't see how this one auction, which is the only one we are likely to see in a year, where the thing (that provides no added material that you can't get elsewhere) goes for $1000 -- fine condition or not -- can't be perceived as either maintaining strong demand or, in fact, increasing.. particularly in light of many people finding it ugly and without much functionality.

The particular percentage increase in value (if indeed that is the case) isn't necessarily important to the argument I was making; the auction was merely illustrating that both items (the 10th and Silver anniversaries) command strong values relative to their rarity.

That doesn't strike me as anything unusual simply because people value things differently.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:20 pm 
 

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:
Surely the desirability of an item is in part dependent on its condition?


Its not, its independent, even though it may appear otherwise.   People don't want an item just because its in nice condition, they want it because it interests them.   Now, once someone sees something that interests them, condition can become a factor in thier opinion of the value of the item.  Even with that though, that is a factor for only some people(likely even most people), however it does not necessarily apply to everyone.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:Of course, the Acaeum's values seem to omit this element, as listed numbers almost always go up in a linear fashion even for the rarest of items. So either the Acaeum is not reflecting buyer behavior, or buyers actually don't demonstrate this tendency very often.


They don't and if you don't see it, then you might want to check your math.  We actually compensate for the fact  that better condition items tend to go for more than there thier worse condition coutnerparts.  The scale that we use is weighted by both condition of the item and how recently the item was auction/sold.  Both are major factors in the values we produce, where as rarity is not.  Valuations are a 3 dimensional process that needs to use real figures and also needs be looked at critically by several people, it is not a 2 dimesnional, "what did the last one sell for" listing.   

Saying that the 10th Anniversary set is now suddenly a lot more "desirable" than it was last year and that it is suddenly worth over $1000, because of one auction would be ignoring several other important factors.  It's the same thing as applying the logic that the most recent Tsojconth sold for over $2000 so now Tsojconths are instantly worth more than $2000.  Thats obviously not the case as you would be ignoring the fact that the last 5 Tsojconth auctions(several of which have been fairly recent) previous to this one it went for less than $1500, even though they were all in NM condition as well.  It just doesn't work that way.

Am I saying the site is perfect?  Nope.  Are we close enough to be considered legitimate?  Absolutely.

Obviously, the site can't compensate for impatient buyers with lots of extra money or those who are ignorant of the normal going rate for items, but it does do a solid job of keeping an accurate trend of where the items have been value-wise based on multiple recorded sales using the actual price the item went for as well as the items condition.  We do not try and predict where the items are going, we only track where they have been.  Usually the two end up being synomous, in some circumstances though, they are not.  

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:Ultimately, I can't see how this one auction, which is the only one we are likely to see in a year, where the thing (that provides no added material that you can't get elsewhere) goes for $1000 -- fine condition or not -- can't be perceived as either maintaining strong demand or, in fact, increasing.. particularly in light of many people finding it ugly and without much functionality.


Well you may be willing to do that,  but unfortunately thats not how the real world works.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:The particular percentage increase in value (if indeed that is the case) isn't necessarily important to the argument I was making; The auction was merely illustrating that both items (the 10th and Silver anniversaries) command strong values relative to their rarity.


Like I said earlier, you can't even compare the two, they are two completely different creatures due in large part to the increase in interest in "collectibles" over the last 15 to 20 years.   If rarity was the sole gauge (or any gauge for that matter) of an items value, then 10th Anniversary sets should be going for far more than 1st print Woodies in the same condition. The reason that I say that is based on the residual evidence, i.e. the infrequency of the 10th Anniversary set coming up for aution versus the 1st Print Woodgrain set.  Roughly 5 times as many 1st print Woograin sets have come up for sale in the same time frame as 10th Anniversary sets have.  Using times up for sale is not of course isn't an absolute reflection of an items real rarity, but it is a strong indication that it is the case in this circumstance, especially considering the 10th Anniversary set is a full 10 to 11 years younger than 1st Print Woodgrain sets and also the fact that we are looking over a three year period for comparison purposes.

On the same token, if the SA sets value was simply determined by its rarity, it should be selling for ~$65-$85 or about $20 to $30 above MSRP if its shrinked and around $45-$55 for open ones that are still NM now.  The market however due to the hype involved currently, does not bear these figures out.


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:36 pm 
 

 Sea-to-sky-games wrote:

Surely the desirability of an item is in part dependent on its condition?  

BClarkie wrote:

Its not, its independent, even though it may appear otherwise.   People don't want an item just because its in nice condition, they want it because it interests them.   Now, once someone sees something that interests them, condition can become a factor in thier opinion of the value of the item.  Even with that though, that is a factor for only some people(likely even most people), however it does not necessarily apply to everyone.


Everyone here is interested in everything D&D.. at least on some scale. So the "interest" condition has already been reached. I can't imagine something with the label D&D on it that I, or anyone else here, wouldn't value at at least a penny. As a result, condition will play some role in how much we are willing to pay.

In other words, I was implicity assuming this little convo had to do with D&D collectors, not people in general.  

 Sea-to-sky-games wrote:
 
Of course, the Acaeum's values seem to omit this element, as listed numbers almost always go up in a linear fashion even for the rarest of items. So either the Acaeum is not reflecting buyer behavior, or buyers actually don't demonstrate this tendency very often.  

BClarkie wrote:

They don't and if you don't see it, then you might want to check your math.  We actually compensate for the fact  that better condition items tend to go for more than there thier worse condition coutnerparts.  The scale that we use is weighted by both condition of the item and how recently the item was auction/sold.  Both are major factors in the values we produce, where as rarity is not.  Valuations are a 3 dimensional process that needs to use real figures and also needs be looked at critically by several people, it is not a 2 dimesnional, "what did the last one sell for" listing.   


I guess we'll have to disagree on this. I don't see how anyone can understand the prices listed on the Acaeum as other than reflecting an arithmetic increase in consumer purchases based on condition, not a geometric one.

In any event, I wasn't suggesting that one auction should generally reflect buyer's values of certain items.. but for very unusual items, it certainly merits additional attention. In this case, this auction represents 25% of the auctions in recent history!!

Saying that the 10th Anniversary set is now suddenly a lot more "desirable" than it was last year and that it is suddenly worth over $1000, because of one auction would be ignoring several other important factors.  It's the same thing as applying the logic that the most recent Tsojconth sold for over $2000 so now Tsojconths are instantly worth more than $2000.  Thats obviously not the case as you would be ignoring the fact that the last 5 Tsojconth auctions(several of which have been fairly recent) previous to this one it went for less than $1500, even though they were all in NM condition as well.  It just doesn't work that way.


There's nothing sudden about it.. the demand is simply there or it isn't. Who knows.. after the last one was bought (say a year ago) people have been increasingly itching to buy one and it manifested itself in the lastest auction price. Of course, there are some inherent limitations in the data with these very rare items and so any speculation of value is just that.. speculation.

All I suggested was that there is nothing to show that demand for these things has fallen. Now if you want to regress its auction prices versus all kinds of things like business cycles, and then control for wage growth and inflation, then okay, we might get a different result. But anything short of that, in my mind, shows that the 10th anniversary is still very highly valued relative to its rarity.. and quite possibly more valued than ever before.

Am I saying the site is perfect?  Nope.  Are we close enough to be considered legitimate?  Absolutely.

Obviously, the site can't compensate for impatient buyers with lots of extra money or those who are ignorant of the normal going rate for items, but it does do a solid job of keeping an accurate trend of where the items have been value-wise based on multiple recorded sales using the actual price the item went for as well as the items condition.  We do not try and predict where the items are going, we only track where they have been.  Usually the two end up being synomous, in some circumstances though, they are not.  


It seems unusual that you wouldn't include the most zealous buyers. As with any average price, within it reflects behavior from some that will pay a lot more and others for much lower, resulting in a distribution. If you don't consider the high end, but consider the low end (or neither), you are not getting all the necessary data or reflecting what people are actually doing with their money.

Anyways I don't run the site; it was merely an observation. You guys are obviously capable of doing whatever you want to do. I think most people find it very informative as a result or in spite of this feature.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:
 
The particular percentage increase in value (if indeed that is the case) isn't necessarily important to the argument I was making; The auction was merely illustrating that both items (the 10th and Silver anniversaries) command strong values relative to their rarity.  

BClarkie wrote:

Like I said earlier, you can't even compare the two, they are two completely different creatures due in large part to the increase in interest in "collectibles" over the last 15 to 20 years.   If rarity was the sole gauge (or any gauge for that matter) of an items value, then 10th Anniversary sets should be going for far more than 1st print Woodies in the same condition. The reason that I say that is based on the residual evidence, i.e. the infrequency of the 10th Anniversary set coming up for aution versus the 1st Print Woodgrain set.  Roughly 5 times as many 1st print Woograin sets have come up for sale in the same time frame as 10th Anniversary sets have.  Using times up for sale is not of course isn't an absolute reflection of an items real rarity, but it is a strong indication that it is the case in this circumstance, especially considering the 10th Anniversary set is a full 10 to 11 years younger than 1st Print Woodgrain sets and also the fact that we are looking over a three year period for comparison purposes.


Again, I never asserted rarity necessarily drives value.. in fact just the opposite! The argument was only that these things are in high demand relative to their rarity. That some items are even more valued relative to their rarity doesn't undermine the point I was making.

On the same token, if the SA sets value was simply determined by its rarity, it should be selling for ~$65-$85 or about $20 to $30 above MSRP if its shrinked and around $45-$55 for open ones that are still NM now.  The market however due to the hype involved currently, does not bear these figures out.


Well I don't know how you can determine what anything "should" sell for solely based on their rarity. It is but one element of the characteristics of a good. You are just making my point (which addressed one of your earlier comments that suggested, to paraphrase, "the SA can't be worth $200 because they aren't very rare").

Finally, coming full circle to my original comment.. the "hype" may in fact be a long-term trend. After all, equally "worthless" sets (as I sought to illustrate with the 10th anniversary set) still command tremendous value relative to their rarity.

All of this argument over a pretty innocuous opinion that stated, in effect, there's nothing unusual with SA auction prices...


Last edited by Sea-to-sky-games on Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
  


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:42 pm 
 

Brian, I thought you said you were going to act like S-T-S doesn't exist... :D

I   -   see   -   no   -   resolution   -   in   -   the   -   near   -   future


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:55 pm 
 

I can see that I have wasted my time, yet again. :?  I am not going to argue all of your points again, its an exercise in futility, however there are two distinct points that I will address.

The first thing thing that I will point out is that I never said that the VB does not use higher end values, I never even implied it.   My statement was a direct explanation of why there are statistical outliers to our posted norms, nothing more and nothing less.  The fact that you even thought that is what I said, says plenty by itself.   That said, it would be stupid to allow just one sale to dictate the real life valuation of an item, because as I noted before it just doesn't work that way.  To give an extreme example, if someone decided to pay $20,000 for a B2, does that mean that B2 is now worth $20,000 because one person decided to that for one?  Or hell would that even make a B2 worth even $50?  Of course not, and it would be stupid to think so.

Secondly, for you to assume that because it has D&D on it that it has some value to everyone here on the site, is flat out wrong.   There are several items in particular that pose absolutely zero value to be.  A large portion of the D&D Kitsch that we cover in another thread are some of those items.  3rd edition stuff outside of RTTTOEE and some of the Goodman Games DCCs, also fall into this category.  To me, these items take up more space than they are worth and the only reason why I would have any of it in my house is because I picked it up to resell.  The only value of the item to me is its resale value, and that value really isn't mine its someone else's. I can say with certainty that I am not the only one who feels this way and I can also say with certainty that its not all D&D Kitsch & 3rd edition haters either.  Some folks hate DL, some folks don't collect things beyond a certain date, etc., etc.

I am done trying to convince you that you are factually incorrect, its impossible, you win. I can't figure out for the life of me how you can actually believe that 2 people on a one time basis determine the value of an item, but I am done trying to figure it out.    I will say that anyone who has been at this more than 3 months knows better than that and so I will save my breath from any further discussion about this lunacy.


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Last edited by bclarkie on Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:10 pm, edited 4 times in total.
  


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:56 pm 
 

bombadil wrote:Brian, I thought you said you were going to act like S-T-S doesn't exist... :D

I   -   see   -   no   -   resolution   -   in   -   the   -   near   -   future


You are absolutely right, but I still try.  :?   You can lead a horse to water, but you can not make them drink....


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:11 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:
Within the last year I have seen SA sets shrinked go for as little $60 and I have seen them as go as high as $150.  I imagine like anything else listed in certain Ebay stores, every once in awhile you stumble onto a new buyer who has no clue to the actual value of the item who will snap something up or someone not willing to wait for an auction to end, however this does not indicate anything other than a lucky sale.  There is no way one of these sets shrinkwrapped or not should be going anywhere near $200.  To be honest these things aren't even that rare nor are they particularly interesting.  IMO, the best part of the SA box sets, is the box itself, as I have found great usage for them for protecting my rare items.  

The only thing that has made go these go as high as they go now is the hype surrounding the mysterious L3, and the module isnt even that great.  Considering that this set was realeased 8 years ago to the tune of a print run of 5000, once people start figuring out that they are really not that rare nor is all that interesting, I owuld anticipate the prices starting to drop on them.  This thing reminds me of the overhyped Deities & Demigods with the Cthulhu & Melnibonean Mythos.  Despite every seller on Ebay who wants to claim that its rare and the Mythos were secretly banned, the book really isn't all that hard to find and the truth of the matter is that TSR removed the Mythos on their own as they did not want to advertise someone elses product in one of their own products.


You mention L3

I sold that for approx $66 USD inc shipping

I don't disagree with you, But if ebayers pay that much I'm happy taking there money.

But I do opperate a " friends " policy on Candlekeep.com they get a 10-15% discount on ebay sales or if they catch me before I list, a best offer gets. I will gladdly extend the same to here now I am getting envolved!


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:14 pm 
 

actually i see one easy resolution here guys.

seriously now....

STS clearly thinks he has a valid argument with regards to the value of rares etc. wouldnt it be a sensible point, to invite him onto the Valuation Board?

makes sense to me anyway... clearly the guy has thought his arguments through, so would be the right avenue to take if you ask me...

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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:17 pm 
 

killjoy32 wrote:i agree with BC.

Delz...i think your estimations are a little on the high side, but hey, if you can sell one for that much, then cool man! :)

i have one on my website for £65 and thats been there a lil while...but the silly ppl who hunt for them on ebay, dont tend to look elsewhere, which always makes me smile :)

Al


I would list it on ebay mine sold in less than 10 days!!

Basically I get what I can for stuff, I do this to make money aswell as build up my own collection.

I fully belive in the Maxims

" An item is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay "
&
"A fair price is what YOU are happy paying !!"

I have been brought up in a very hard sell house hold (dads job) so I went into sales at an early age.

I seem to be blessed in the "extracting money department!" :D

Sorry ego polish!

But as for the values .............. Pass.

I only know fact and GREEN.

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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:24 pm 
 

i dont want to sell it on ebay and am not in any great need of funds right now, so its fine where it is for the time being :D

i listed one on ebay ages ago, which sold, so i know i can do that if i need to.

was quite funny too. the guy was over the moon with it, but he told me that my packaging was that good, it took him over an hour to open it all and be able to check out the stuff :D

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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:27 pm 
 

killjoy32 wrote:i dont want to sell it on ebay and am not in any great need of funds right now, so its fine where it is for the time being :D

i listed one on ebay ages ago, which sold, so i know i can do that if i need to.

was quite funny too. the guy was over the moon with it, but he told me that my packaging was that good, it took him over an hour to open it all and be able to check out the stuff :D

Al




LOL



I must admit if anything my pet hate is Badly packaged items on ebay.


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:35 pm 
 

Delzoun-blood wrote:

LOL

I must admit if anything my pet hate is Badly packaged items on ebay.




well anything that has value, i try my best to ensure that it gets to its destination in the same condition that it left mine in!! :)



i would want others to do that for me, so its only fair to do the same.



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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:37 pm 
 

to true


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 6:24 pm 
 

" An item is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay "
&
"A fair price is what YOU are happy paying !!"


I think that's all I've ever suggested.. but that view is in an extreme minority here, if I had to guess. The most likely reason for this chasm is that this philosophy is perceived to be at odds with what the valuation board does.. but this is really not the case at all. The two are not mutually inconsistent.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:08 pm 
 

killjoy32 wrote:i agree with BC.

Delz...i think your estimations are a little on the high side, but hey, if you can sell one for that much, then cool man! :)

i have one on my website for £65 and thats been there a lil while...but the silly ppl who hunt for them on ebay, dont tend to look elsewhere, which always makes me smile :)

Al

I've pointed a couple of people to your site listing - I'm seriously surprised it's not gone yet.


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Post Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:56 pm 
 

bombadil wrote:Maybe I was assuming 1000 existing shrinked copies (about 20%?) still in existence, then estimated the rate of decay based on uptake by collectors and/or people opening the shrink to sell off L3s and the like.


Could you have been referring to the 1000 copies that contained the signed lithograph?


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