bombadil wrote:Axel,I did this up a while back, comparing the potential rarity of the Silver Ann to that of Fazzlewood over the long-term, but don't even remember what exactly I was basing this on at the time. I think the value of the shrink-wrapped Silver Ann will go up quite a bit given enough time:[ Image ]
Sorry, but I don't find one auction(of a particularly nice set at that) as being applicable as indicating that demand is getting stronger.
On top of the fact that the 10th Anniversary Set had 1/5th the print run(many of which may have actually been pulped like a ton of other stuff from the mid 1980's) and it was also issued almost 25 years ago. At the time it sold the 10 Anniversary Collectors Set was not considered a Collectors item at all, as a matter of fact it was sold as and recognized as just a fancy way of TSR getting rid of over-stock. I can realistically see a majority of those people who did actually purchase sets at the time tossing the box in the trash, because it is in fact a big bulky box made of cheap fake leather, that takes up far more room that it should. The fact that the box is open ended makes it almost useless for anything else a person could dream up for it.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote:One auction.. but over the last 3 years only 3 10th Anniversaries have been sold. That's 25% of the auctions over the last 4 years! I think one auction, in which many people bid is pretty representative of the current state of demand.
bclarkie wrote:The fact is that people pony up a lot extra when the condition of a particular item is premium, regardless of the rarity or "collectability"
Thats really not a surprise. I hate to break it to you cuz, but two people do not make a trend.
Three VF or better 1st print Woodgrains have sold in full term Ebay auctions in the last 12 to 18 months. All of them have at least exceeded $4000. These sets also had a print run of 1000. I just tried to sell a set msyelf tat was in pretty bad condition, that didn't even meet the reserve of $899(which is less than Fair condition's value on the site). If rarity and desirabilty were the sole factors in an auction, then my set would have sold easily for more than my reserve. I can gaurantee you that if I would sell my own 10th Anniversary Set that I would be hard pressed to get any more than $225 to $250 for it. its not completely hammered, but its certainly not perfect either.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote:Surely the desirability of an item is in part dependent on its condition?
Sea-to-sky-games wrote:Of course, the Acaeum's values seem to omit this element, as listed numbers almost always go up in a linear fashion even for the rarest of items. So either the Acaeum is not reflecting buyer behavior, or buyers actually don't demonstrate this tendency very often.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote:Ultimately, I can't see how this one auction, which is the only one we are likely to see in a year, where the thing (that provides no added material that you can't get elsewhere) goes for $1000 -- fine condition or not -- can't be perceived as either maintaining strong demand or, in fact, increasing.. particularly in light of many people finding it ugly and without much functionality.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote:The particular percentage increase in value (if indeed that is the case) isn't necessarily important to the argument I was making; The auction was merely illustrating that both items (the 10th and Silver anniversaries) command strong values relative to their rarity.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote: Surely the desirability of an item is in part dependent on its condition? BClarkie wrote:Its not, its independent, even though it may appear otherwise. People don't want an item just because its in nice condition, they want it because it interests them. Now, once someone sees something that interests them, condition can become a factor in thier opinion of the value of the item. Even with that though, that is a factor for only some people(likely even most people), however it does not necessarily apply to everyone.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote: Of course, the Acaeum's values seem to omit this element, as listed numbers almost always go up in a linear fashion even for the rarest of items. So either the Acaeum is not reflecting buyer behavior, or buyers actually don't demonstrate this tendency very often. BClarkie wrote:They don't and if you don't see it, then you might want to check your math. We actually compensate for the fact that better condition items tend to go for more than there thier worse condition coutnerparts. The scale that we use is weighted by both condition of the item and how recently the item was auction/sold. Both are major factors in the values we produce, where as rarity is not. Valuations are a 3 dimensional process that needs to use real figures and also needs be looked at critically by several people, it is not a 2 dimesnional, "what did the last one sell for" listing.
Saying that the 10th Anniversary set is now suddenly a lot more "desirable" than it was last year and that it is suddenly worth over $1000, because of one auction would be ignoring several other important factors. It's the same thing as applying the logic that the most recent Tsojconth sold for over $2000 so now Tsojconths are instantly worth more than $2000. Thats obviously not the case as you would be ignoring the fact that the last 5 Tsojconth auctions(several of which have been fairly recent) previous to this one it went for less than $1500, even though they were all in NM condition as well. It just doesn't work that way.
Am I saying the site is perfect? Nope. Are we close enough to be considered legitimate? Absolutely. Obviously, the site can't compensate for impatient buyers with lots of extra money or those who are ignorant of the normal going rate for items, but it does do a solid job of keeping an accurate trend of where the items have been value-wise based on multiple recorded sales using the actual price the item went for as well as the items condition. We do not try and predict where the items are going, we only track where they have been. Usually the two end up being synomous, in some circumstances though, they are not.
Sea-to-sky-games wrote: The particular percentage increase in value (if indeed that is the case) isn't necessarily important to the argument I was making; The auction was merely illustrating that both items (the 10th and Silver anniversaries) command strong values relative to their rarity. BClarkie wrote:Like I said earlier, you can't even compare the two, they are two completely different creatures due in large part to the increase in interest in "collectibles" over the last 15 to 20 years. If rarity was the sole gauge (or any gauge for that matter) of an items value, then 10th Anniversary sets should be going for far more than 1st print Woodies in the same condition. The reason that I say that is based on the residual evidence, i.e. the infrequency of the 10th Anniversary set coming up for aution versus the 1st Print Woodgrain set. Roughly 5 times as many 1st print Woograin sets have come up for sale in the same time frame as 10th Anniversary sets have. Using times up for sale is not of course isn't an absolute reflection of an items real rarity, but it is a strong indication that it is the case in this circumstance, especially considering the 10th Anniversary set is a full 10 to 11 years younger than 1st Print Woodgrain sets and also the fact that we are looking over a three year period for comparison purposes.
On the same token, if the SA sets value was simply determined by its rarity, it should be selling for ~$65-$85 or about $20 to $30 above MSRP if its shrinked and around $45-$55 for open ones that are still NM now. The market however due to the hype involved currently, does not bear these figures out.
bombadil wrote:Brian, I thought you said you were going to act like S-T-S doesn't exist... I - see - no - resolution - in - the - near - future
bclarkie wrote:Within the last year I have seen SA sets shrinked go for as little $60 and I have seen them as go as high as $150. I imagine like anything else listed in certain Ebay stores, every once in awhile you stumble onto a new buyer who has no clue to the actual value of the item who will snap something up or someone not willing to wait for an auction to end, however this does not indicate anything other than a lucky sale. There is no way one of these sets shrinkwrapped or not should be going anywhere near $200. To be honest these things aren't even that rare nor are they particularly interesting. IMO, the best part of the SA box sets, is the box itself, as I have found great usage for them for protecting my rare items. The only thing that has made go these go as high as they go now is the hype surrounding the mysterious L3, and the module isnt even that great. Considering that this set was realeased 8 years ago to the tune of a print run of 5000, once people start figuring out that they are really not that rare nor is all that interesting, I owuld anticipate the prices starting to drop on them. This thing reminds me of the overhyped Deities & Demigods with the Cthulhu & Melnibonean Mythos. Despite every seller on Ebay who wants to claim that its rare and the Mythos were secretly banned, the book really isn't all that hard to find and the truth of the matter is that TSR removed the Mythos on their own as they did not want to advertise someone elses product in one of their own products.
killjoy32 wrote:i agree with BC.Delz...i think your estimations are a little on the high side, but hey, if you can sell one for that much, then cool man! i have one on my website for £65 and thats been there a lil while...but the silly ppl who hunt for them on ebay, dont tend to look elsewhere, which always makes me smile Al
killjoy32 wrote:i dont want to sell it on ebay and am not in any great need of funds right now, so its fine where it is for the time being i listed one on ebay ages ago, which sold, so i know i can do that if i need to.was quite funny too. the guy was over the moon with it, but he told me that my packaging was that good, it took him over an hour to open it all and be able to check out the stuff Al
Delzoun-blood wrote:LOL I must admit if anything my pet hate is Badly packaged items on ebay.
