The future for Silver Anniversary Box Sets
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Post Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:16 pm 
 

I know we can look at past sales for the previous last few weeks on e-Bay.
But, I suspect that hundreds of these box sets were broken up with the individual parts sold off in separate listings.
On any day you can view a dozen or more listings on e-Bay for parts that came from this box set.

I would think this past activity for the 25th Anniversary Box Sets would significantly lower the number of complete sets and even more so, the SWed copies.

Can we have some fun and discuss our thoughts on the future probable values for this box set?
As a whole, not in its individual parts.
Below are my guesses, assuming NM (or better) condition grades.

Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125
Complete opened set - future (5 years): $200
Complete opened set - future (10 years): $275
Complete opened set -  future (50th anniversary): $350 - $400

SWed set - Current: $150 - $175
SWed set - future (5 years): $250
SWed set - future (10 years): $350
SWed set - future (50th anniversary): $450 - $500

(NOTE: Some sellers are using future pricing now)


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Post Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:02 pm 
 

At a certain point, the value of the sets will exceed the value of the components  (hasn't it already?).  After a certain points sellers will be attempting to assemble Silver Anniversary box sets from gathered components.


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Post Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:59 pm 
 

Beyondthebreach wrote:At a certain point, the value of the sets will exceed the value of the components  (hasn't it already?).  After a certain points sellers will be attempting to assemble Silver Anniversary box sets from gathered components.


Not yet.  I can still bust open a set and make more than from a set itself. But the value has been creeping higher for awhile now.

I think once collectors really start giving this a look they will find that so many have been broken up, finding a complete NM set is pretty hard. As BYB said, the future will see people assembling a set because a complete one will be so hard to find.

There's gotta be a lot of empty boxes laying around from people that have broken open sets for resale...maybe it's time to start picking those up cheaply?

Mike B.


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Post Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:11 pm 
 

Gnat the Beggar wrote:I know we can look at past sales for the previous last few weeks on e-Bay.
But, I suspect that hundreds of these box sets were broken up with the individual parts sold off in separate listings.
On any day you can view a dozen or more listings on e-Bay for parts that came from this box set.

I would think this past activity for the 25th Anniversary Box Sets would significantly lower the number of complete sets and even more so, the SWed copies.

Can we have some fun and discuss our thoughts on the future probable values for this box set?
As a whole, not in its individual parts.
Below are my guesses, assuming NM (or better) condition grades.

Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125
Complete opened set - future (5 years): $200
Complete opened set - future (10 years): $275
Complete opened set -  future (50th anniversary): $350 - $400

SWed set - Current: $150 - $175
SWed set - future (5 years): $250
SWed set - future (10 years): $350
SWed set - future (50th anniversary): $450 - $500

(NOTE: Some sellers are using future pricing now)

Since the money supply has more than doubled in just three years, what you are really suggesting is that the real price of these sets is going to fall.

I would add, though, that your guesses are reasonable given what we know today. But there is just so much uncertainty about our currency that trying to predict what happens even a year from now is probably a fools errand.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:18 pm 
 

[quote="Badmike
There's gotta be a lot of empty boxes laying around from people that have broken open sets for resale...maybe it's time to start picking those up cheaply?

Mike B.[/quote]

yep - I've never had a complete set but I've got at least 4 empty boxes (well not empty, they're obviously full of other crap!)


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:53 am 
 

gyg wrote:
yep - I've never had a complete set but I've got at least 4 empty boxes (well not empty, they're obviously full of other crap!)


I'll take an empty box of you, if it helps.... ;)


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:17 am 
 

A few years ago, I posted a graph showing what I thought was a reasonable projection of the attrition rates of shrink-wrapped Silver Anns and some other rare like Tsojconth or something, arguing that a s/w SA would eventually become harder to find than the Tsojconth/other rare, then got blasted for making such ludicrous projections by deimos, I think.  My opinion really hasn't changed.  They're going to become rare to the point of being nonexistent eventually (shrink-wrapped copies, that is).


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:45 am 
 

gyg wrote:yep - I've never had a complete set but I've got at least 4 empty boxes (well not empty, they're obviously full of other crap!)


I would also take an empty box (perhaps two of them) off your hands if you are willing to part with one.
And no I do not plan to build a complete set from scratch as I agree that it would be cheaper to buy a set than to build one.
I will be using it to store other things inside it.


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:00 pm 
 

I bought two of these when they came out.  I opened one to play with the parts and kept the other in shrink to collect.

Later on when L3 started going for big bucks I auctioned off individual mods and made a killing :)

I still have an empty box LOL

I guess I must agree with John and the rest, the shrink ones will be ever difficult to find.


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:48 pm 
 

bombadil wrote:A few years ago, I posted a graph showing what I thought was a reasonable projection of the attrition rates of shrink-wrapped Silver Anns and some other rare like Tsojconth or something, arguing that a s/w SA would eventually become harder to find than the Tsojconth/other rare, then got blasted for making such ludicrous projections by deimos, I think.  My opinion really hasn't changed.  They're going to become rare to the point of being nonexistent eventually (shrink-wrapped copies, that is).


Also, tearing the shrink and looking inside is one of the only ways to discover if your set has a signed and numbered print inside (only 1000 copies).

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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:01 pm 
 

Right, good point, Mike.

Here's the old post I was referring to, 2nd page on this thread.  I was comparing Silver Anniversary sets to Fazzlewood:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3638&hilit=silver+anniversary+fazzlewood&start=20

bombadil wrote:Interesting discussion, guys.

Shouldn't the comparison of rarity be made relative to the length of time the products have been on the market?  Given enough time, an item will become rare even with a low attrition rate.

Assuming the survival rates of Fazzle and Silver Ann are what Tyson stated (approx 87% an 60%, respectively), this is what the remaining numbers look like after comparable periods on the market:

[ Image ]

Relative to length of time on the market, the signed Silver Ann is rarer than Fazzlewood.


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Post Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:08 pm 
 

Note that the copies with the signed /numbered print have a sticker indicating as such on the outside of the shrink-wrap.

Example:
http://tomeoftreasures.com/forum/viewto ... nniversary

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Post Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:43 am 
 

Gnat the Beggar wrote:Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125
Complete opened set - future (5 years): $200
Complete opened set - future (10 years): $275
Complete opened set -  future (50th anniversary): $350 - $400


I think we should make adjustments to accommodate future economic conditions:
Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125
Complete opened set - future (5 years): a gallon of gasoline, by then the most precious item on the planet, or tickets to Obama's third inaugural ball.
Complete opened set - future (10 years): three non-radioactive rat carcasses, the most food an average survivor can hope for in a week.
Complete opened set -  future (50th anniversary): incantations & sacrifices, as the set is worshiped like a god by the primitive civilization which arises from the rubble.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:41 pm 
 

Is there any price history of the LE signed-print versions?  Are they generally distinguished in ebay sales, or do they slip under the radar?

I have never really looked even causally for the signed version, but I don't recall seeing even one for sale.


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Post Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:51 pm 
 

They are easy to spot by the sticker on the shrink but usually fly under the radar unless you are specifically looking for it - its usually not in the Ebay subject or description.  Ones that are promoted as being signed and in shrink usually do tend to sell for more (or perhaps its just the Acaeum effect).  They do seem rarer than their production numbers suggest they are.  Theoretically for every 4 unsigned copies there is 1 signed but I know it took me a while to find one that was signed.

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:39 am 
 

Admittedly, I haven't been following RPG collection or selling very closely over the last few years . . . but can someone demonstrate to me with average sale price examples how a Shrinkwrapped Silver anniversary set is worth more broken up than selling off the individual components.

Let's assume the following:

1)  Everything is sold on ebay, so multiple fees will apply for individual sales vs. one high ticket item.

2) All modules are clearly stated to be from the Silver anniversary set and NOT an early printing (especially true for Monos)


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:13 pm 
 

Well, after a G2 clearly listed as originating from the Silver Anniversary set went for £16.95 (IIRC) over here...
(Unfortunately, the listing has migrated in the past few days, so I can't confirm the price, but the seller is a member here; http://feedback.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI ... &items=100 )


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:36 pm 
 

Average . . . or better yet, Median, sales price.  Exceptionally high or low prices really don't have any bearing.

Seems that, maybe, $9 or $10 is accurate?


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Post Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 6:44 pm 
 

Beyondthebreach wrote:Admittedly, I haven't been following RPG collection or selling very closely over the last few years . . . but can someone demonstrate to me with average sale price examples how a Shrinkwrapped Silver anniversary set is worth more broken up than selling off the individual components.

Let's assume the following:

1)  Everything is sold on ebay, so multiple fees will apply for individual sales vs. one high ticket item.

2) All modules are clearly stated to be from the Silver anniversary set and NOT an early printing (especially true for Monos)


I've done it many times:

L3 Deep Dwarven Delve---$75
B2, G1, G2, G3, I6, S2---$15 each
Anniversary Booklet & Art print---$15
Box---$10

That's $190 right there. And those are prices I've actually got for the items listed, stating they were from the Silver Anniversary set, with Buy It Now prices. I don't think it's a stretch to say if you wanted to you could easily get $200 or more for the contents if you were more patient.

Fee difference is negligible, the fees for 9 items at $190 total are not that different from one item at $140, certainly not $50 worth.

I've actually sold a Deep Dwarven Delve once for more than I got for an entire Silver Anniversary Boxed set (not shrinked). Makes no sense I know.

I've busted at least half a dozen sets and these results are pretty consistent.  For awhile, you could do pretty well finding Silver Anniversary sets on ebay for under $100, buying them and reselling the split up contents for almost 100% profit. Heck I got one at Gencon a few years back for $90 and still did alright.

You gotta remember, people buy these to use or read, not to collect, so they don't care if it's from the Silver Anniversary set of not, they just like the fact they are in NM shape and affordable. And in the case of Deep Dwarven Delve they don't do any research to see if they can find an entire set for $75-$100, instead of just the one adventure.

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Post Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 7:43 pm 
 

That's about what I figure . . .  of course, you've been doing it awhile Badmike and can afford to be patient.  I strongly suspect that you could put up a shrinkwrap set for $200 and get someone to buy it in a reasonable amount of time which would get you the same thing with a whole lot less effort.

Of course, that is considering a shrinked set . . .  not one that is complete but has already been opened.


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