Beyondthebreach wrote:At a certain point, the value of the sets will exceed the value of the components (hasn't it already?). After a certain points sellers will be attempting to assemble Silver Anniversary box sets from gathered components.
Gnat the Beggar wrote:I know we can look at past sales for the previous last few weeks on e-Bay.But, I suspect that hundreds of these box sets were broken up with the individual parts sold off in separate listings.On any day you can view a dozen or more listings on e-Bay for parts that came from this box set.I would think this past activity for the 25th Anniversary Box Sets would significantly lower the number of complete sets and even more so, the SWed copies.Can we have some fun and discuss our thoughts on the future probable values for this box set?As a whole, not in its individual parts.Below are my guesses, assuming NM (or better) condition grades.Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125Complete opened set - future (5 years): $200Complete opened set - future (10 years): $275Complete opened set - future (50th anniversary): $350 - $400SWed set - Current: $150 - $175SWed set - future (5 years): $250SWed set - future (10 years): $350SWed set - future (50th anniversary): $450 - $500(NOTE: Some sellers are using future pricing now)
gyg wrote:yep - I've never had a complete set but I've got at least 4 empty boxes (well not empty, they're obviously full of other crap!)
bombadil wrote:A few years ago, I posted a graph showing what I thought was a reasonable projection of the attrition rates of shrink-wrapped Silver Anns and some other rare like Tsojconth or something, arguing that a s/w SA would eventually become harder to find than the Tsojconth/other rare, then got blasted for making such ludicrous projections by deimos, I think. My opinion really hasn't changed. They're going to become rare to the point of being nonexistent eventually (shrink-wrapped copies, that is).
bombadil wrote:Interesting discussion, guys.Shouldn't the comparison of rarity be made relative to the length of time the products have been on the market? Given enough time, an item will become rare even with a low attrition rate.Assuming the survival rates of Fazzle and Silver Ann are what Tyson stated (approx 87% an 60%, respectively), this is what the remaining numbers look like after comparable periods on the market:[ Image ]Relative to length of time on the market, the signed Silver Ann is rarer than Fazzlewood.
Gnat the Beggar wrote:Complete opened set - Current: $100-$125Complete opened set - future (5 years): $200Complete opened set - future (10 years): $275Complete opened set - future (50th anniversary): $350 - $400
