MORGANSURNAME WAVES WHITE FLAG
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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 5:19 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:I could use long-term numbers for everything from gasoline to bread. 4 years ago gas was around $1.20, now it's $2.00+. Is it worth $2.00+? No, market manipulation and stock speculators have combined to drive up prices as usual. What is gas worth? From a retail point of view, it should be $1.30 or so.
Valid points.  Course, the market on gas has affected shipping has affected postage has affected everything.  Also, Paypal fees when up.  Inherently, everything on Ebay should probably go up just because of time and these factors.  

Regardless though...this qote" There is an inherent flaw in using one resource to determine pricing. We have all heard the "But the Acaeum says it is worth this much" line" also would then of course affect anyone that uses only an Ebay 30 day search to define prices on anything....would it not???? :?:  :idea:  :wink:

  


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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 5:25 pm 
 

myalbinogorilla wrote:I actually find Mike's site to be inconsistent in todays market.  That was why I developed my own price tracking chart.  (I kept getting outbid on 2nd Edition stuff and losing $ or barely profitting on 1st edition stuff at resale)

On Mike's list, most of the 1st edition items are valued too high (especially Ardor and Umbar) whereas almost all of the 2nd Edition things are way too low.  This is probably due to the fact that the 2nd edition items hadn't been out as long as they have been now and people may not have realized how rare some of them were at the time.  2nd edition books like The Shire, Dol Guldur, Lake-town, Hands of the Healer, Northern Waste, Angmar and Mirkwood rarely come up for auction and usually go way over Mike's pricing index.

As far as my pricing goes, for bidding, I use Mike's site for most of my 1st edition estimates and round down to the nearest $5 increment (with the exception of Ardor, Umbar, Grey Mountains and Gorgoroth, whose prices are out of whack in my experience trying to sell them)  I sold Frank a huge lot a few months back that was exclusively 1st edition stuff and that was how we agreed to come to our final price.  When selling I usually start my bidding at an even lower price point sometimes rounding down to the nearest $10 or $15 increment.  I also lower my starting prices when I relist things that didn't sell the first time.  For 2nd Edition stuff I only use my chart as his numbers are too wacky.


I too agree about the 2nd edition stuff.  I use Mike C.s scale of course and find that starting an auction at that level with BIN of 25%-50% will usually end via a BIN in a day or two or become a feeding frenzy of a bidding game.  They must be less avaliable.  Perhaps since they were published when ICE was already in trouble?  Who knows....Also the info and maps are a lot better...with time....comes experience.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 6:13 pm 
 

Ah, but eBay is NOT a single source. It is Thousands of collectors and resellers defining a market price thru bidding. No one individual determines the price, it is determined collectively thru multiple sales.
Was my Tamoachan worth more than $600? Yes. But if you were to look at ALL the eBay Tamoachan sales, you would find the average to be around $800 or so, which is in my estimate what it is worth. Condition dependent, obviously.
You are also neglecting to factor in the $5 every reseller seems to want to charge for shipping. This in my mind is added to the item price to arrive at the value. If I buy Shelob at a local store, I expect to pay $15, for example. On eBay, I pay $10, since $5 will be added in for shipping. I won't even get into the sellers who charge "eBay" and "Paypal" fees. Those in my mind are the price of doing business for the seller, same as a retail store pays overhead. The buyer should NEVER be asked to pay fees, except shipping.


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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 6:22 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:Ah, but eBay is NOT a single source. It is Thousands of collectors and resellers defining a market price thru bidding. No one individual determines the price, it is determined collectively thru multiple sales.
Was my .


Man...I realize more and more that you have a really twisted thought process.  

Let's review:

1.  I use Mike C's list to judge a books worth.
2.  You say that it is not a legitimate source because it is only one source.
3. You use a 30 day period of Ebay sales.
4. That is ok because it is thousands of people (really only maybe 5-10 people a month for each book..more or less depending on how many of that book is listed that month and how many people bid).
5.  AND WHERE DID MIKE GET HIS INFO FROM??? FROM YEARS OF THE THOUSANDS OF EBAYERS!!!!!  
6.  Ergo...is not the Mike C. site as legitimate (granted, as a shall we say baseline to be adjusted depending on other factors..) as Ebay since in fact it was derived from Ebay???? :?:

Hmmm...lets see if Deadlord reads and absorbs this whole post or just the parts of that fit his mood/arguement as in most other posts. :wink:

  

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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 7:08 pm 
 

AGAIN, Mike's info is years out of date. If it wasn't, it would be a collection of recent eBay auctions, and would be a perfectly good guideline.
What you're saying is akin to saying that Pokemon cards should sell for huge money, since they did three years ago. Right now they are worth less than a U.N. resolution.


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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 7:19 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:AGAIN, Mike's info is years out of date. If it wasn't, it would be a collection of recent eBay auctions, and would be a perfectly good guideline.
What you're saying is akin to saying that Pokemon cards should sell for huge money, since they did three years ago. Right now they are worth less than a U.N. resolution.


FRANK,FRANK,FRANK,FRANK,FRANK,FRANK,FRANK!!!

LISTEN!!!

My point is not that Mike C.'s is outdated.  Fine..I give you that...like I stated, I adjust this number as well...

My point is this...let me say this in nickel words instead of five dollar ones:

You above state that Mike C. is a single source...based on Ebay...
Ebay is a single source too.  That is all...just admit it, you slipped.  I am man enough to admit to mistakes...are you oh great one!?!?!?!

  

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Post Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 10:52 pm 
 

eBay is a single SITE with MULTIPLE SOURCES, i.e. MULTIPLE BUYERS/SELLERS. It is a collection of people from around the world.
I feel like GameEmporium with the caps and all.
Mike's site is out of date, therefore junk. That cannot be contradicted.


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Post Posted: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:12 am 
 

Ok....so here is a scenario:

You make a searh in June:  10 Cirith Ungol books go up for auction and sell for $10 each...ergo their worth is $10

You make a search in July:  1 Cirith Ungol book goes up for auction with two bidders that fight like mad for it.  It sells for $25....ergo now it is worth $25?????

(Note:  No resellers bid on any of them)

Come on.  Admit it.  Your short term 30 day theory is flawed as well!  You would have to do a search each month at the beginning of the month and average it for months to come up with a realistic tool.  

I can admit my mistakes...can you?

  

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Post Posted: Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:19 pm 
 

You can average the months, use some intelligence and discount idiot bidders, etc., and find a decent average. In this case it would still be $10. It really isn't that difficult to understand. Use a 6 month period. Works just fine.


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Post Posted: Sat Jun 12, 2004 11:19 pm 
 

Morgan, what with the sky-high prices and most of your auctions going unsold, how do you make any money after listing and eBay fees?


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2004 3:58 am 
 

jagd wrote:Dude

I don't know anything about MERP or about morgansurname or your history with Frank but just my 2 cents worth.

a) Reporting 19hand to ebay was pretty low.

b) Don't apologise for reselling. If there is a market for it out there then go for it. Yeah sure some people will be bitter but I'm sure you have happy customers too. It seems a lot of effort for not very much profit but if it makes you happy then go for it. As long as you keep your practices honest and fair then I don't think anyone has cause to complain.


Valid points..thanks

On A) Agreed.  I still feel badly about this. Even if he was rotten SOB (which I think he is far from), I let my emotions get the best of me.  A simple email probably could have cleared it up.  

On B)Much appreciated.  But, I really have lost the joy that reselling gave me.  Even though I am defending myself, I enjoy these posts as much as, if not more than, the fun from reselling.  Meeting people and feeling like I was giving a great service were the real benefits...now that is lost....Still, I have a lot of  stock to get rid of, so I will be around.


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2004 4:04 am 
 

JonOakes wrote:Hey, welcome...

I just wanted to say, as an avowed FreeMarketeer, I don't think reselling is evil.  However, as a member of the community of collectors I don't think its very responsible.

So you have to ask yourself (and apparently you have); "Do I want to make a few bucks at the expense of being reviled by a community I consider myself proud to be a part of?"

Everyone who collects, most likely, resells... it's a question of degree and to which you leverage your position in the market.

Feel free to continue cornering the market on certain items and driving up prices... it's a free market and a free country... just don't be surprised if people hold you in the contempt that they hold OPEC and Microsoft as well.  If it's worth it to you, great!

Okay, but you've said you want out and want to rejoin the ranks of the good and noble hobbyist collectors.  Cool.  But you're gonna have to prove it.

Lastly, incidents between individuals need to be worked out with those individuals.  I don't care to sit in judgement of what happened between you and 19hand.  Seems naughty to me.. but, as a third party I'll never know the whole story.

Finally (err. really...Finally),

WELCOME.  As for me, you have a clean slate.  I will only judge you by what you say and do from this point forward and we welcome any insight or knowledge you can share about the art of collecting items for this silly game.


Thanks...these comments enheartened me.  Your words spoke the most truth to me.  They permeated the core of the problem.  I am/was becoming something that in truth I despise...a monopolist...and without really realizing it or grasping the extent.


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2004 4:08 am 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:You can average the months, use some intelligence and discount idiot bidders, etc., and find a decent average. In this case it would still be $10. It really isn't that difficult to understand. Use a 6 month period. Works just fine.
Agreed.  I can fully accept this.  So...what were the averages of the last 6 months for Cirith Ungol (even with resellers).  Just curious.


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2004 4:13 am 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:Morgan, what with the sky-high prices and most of your auctions going unsold, how do you make any money after listing and eBay fees?


Frank,

It was not about he money as much as meeting people and listing books in an accurate manner.  As stated, I am not making nearly as much as I could at my job.  It was just something to do while my daughter was sleeping.  Something for me.  I gained a lot of pride from all of the postitive comments from my buyers.  Perhaps that pride shrouded the fact that I was causing more harm than good.


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2004 6:27 pm 
 

Well, if you really want to establish what these books go for on ebay, you will have to:

1. gather a time stamped source for every auction involving that item every month.

2. maintain that list until you have at least 60 instances (minimum is usually 30, but you invariably lose anywhere from 25-50% under validity tests, which is in step 3).

3. remove any instances of the item where it has been included with other items in an auction lot; or was placed in an unusual location within ebay (listed under books or magazines, etc).

4. perform a Dixon's test for outliers. This will remove instances that are far out of the range of a normal curve (such as some new ebayer paying $200 for something that is only worth $20 or a $200 item that slips through the cracks and sells for $20, the sword cuts both ways).

5. Take your final sample population and derive simple statistics on it (mode, median, and mean, standard deviation, etc). You can then get into trends an so on.

However, it may take some time to actually get the 60 instances that you can work with because you will have to establish a minimum level of item quality (mint, excellent, good, etc; and you will have to have a decent enough auction picture to make that judgement. Naturally, the higher the quality accepted the more accurate the final valuations.

Of course, all of the above only applies if you are really going to try to establish an accurate value assessment for any collectible item. If we are just going to do an "I go by this and you go by that and mine is more valid" then you are as likely to be just as accurate if you put a bunch of prices in a hat and then pick one.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:07 pm 
 

It does take a bit of brainpower and common sense.


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 20, 2004 4:24 pm 
 

PurpleDragon wrote:Well, if you really want to establish what these books go for on ebay, you will have to:

1. gather a time stamped source for every auction involving that item every month.

2. maintain that list until you have at least 60 instances (minimum is usually 30, but you invariably lose anywhere from 25-50% under validity tests, which is in step 3).

3. remove any instances of the item where it has been included with other items in an auction lot; or was placed in an unusual location within ebay (listed under books or magazines, etc).

4. perform a Dixon's test for outliers. This will remove instances that are far out of the range of a normal curve (such as some new ebayer paying $200 for something that is only worth $20 or a $200 item that slips through the cracks and sells for $20, the sword cuts both ways).

5. Take your final sample population and derive simple statistics on it (mode, median, and mean, standard deviation, etc). You can then get into trends an so on.

However, it may take some time to actually get the 60 instances that you can work with because you will have to establish a minimum level of item quality (mint, excellent, good, etc; and you will have to have a decent enough auction picture to make that judgement. Naturally, the higher the quality accepted the more accurate the final valuations.

Of course, all of the above only applies if you are really going to try to establish an accurate value assessment for any collectible item. If we are just going to do an "I go by this and you go by that and mine is more valid" then you are as likely to be just as accurate if you put a bunch of prices in a hat and then pick one.


Hey purp....sorry for the delay on this reply....I missed it...

But I am curious, what is your background?  Are you a Sociology/Economics grad?  Very nice insight and much appreciated.


May Eru's light shine upon you always.

  


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 20, 2004 7:15 pm 
 

I am a cartographic engineer and do a lot of work with geologists and hydrologists so statistical sampling is commonplace. Glad I could be of help.

  
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