Silliest auction price of 2004-2005 announced!
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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:43 pm 
 

The interesting thing about markets is that they're entirely based on speculative worth.  Say module XYZ is fairly rare and believed to be worth $50.  I bid on one and win it, in a hard fight, for $80.  My competitors think, "Hmm, must be more rare than I thought.  What does he know that I dont?"  They make a mental note to next time bid $85, because now they're really curious.

The next one comes along, I snag it again, after a hard fight up to $90.  People are now extremely curious.  I go on vacation, competitors feel it's time to strike.  Unfortunately, there's five of them, all thinking along the same lines - the item is rarer than the original value leads them to believe.

I come back and find that the auction was a bloodfest, and it went for $150.  Scratching my head, I ask them what they were thinking.  "Hey, you guys, why are you bidding so much?  I promised that module as a birthday present to a friend.  It's only worth $50, but I was willing to pay $80 on emotional principle.  He liked it so much, he insisted I had to get one.  I got it for $90.  Then I was done - knowing I was overbidding in both circumstances.  What's with this $150 stuff?"  People grumble, and make a note that it's still worth only $50.  The insanity is over.

But then, some newbies who watched the last one go for $150, while checking the value at some site at $50, realize it's a great specualtive piece - it's tripled in value in just 6 months!  The next auction, all of the veterans bid a sensible $50.  Two newbies get in a bidding frenzy and spike the next one to $160.

So ... what's the market value?  The "real," logically established scarcity value of $50, or the hyped-up $160?  If you sold one a week after the $160 sale, "Rare!  Out of print!  Must have!" then what do you think you'll get for it?
:wink:

Markets have a foundation of logic.  Speculation does the rest.  The trick is to remember that markets are fluid.  You can keep the "real" price in your head, but the actual current price will fluctuate on a sine curve, depending on hysteria.

Check out L3, for example.  The module alone often goes more than what you'll pay for a complete shrinkwrapped Silver Anniversary box.

To which end, a couple questions ...
8)

What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone?  What do you think is the current price?

Same for H1.  What's the logical price?  What's the current price?

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:01 pm 
 

invincibleoverlord wrote:I totally agree with Aneoth, certain sellers should command a premium.

But you do go on to say so for different reasons; expecting a future premium because of provenance.

OK, this may be true for one-off/unique disposals of items (usually high value ones) from given collections, but Burnie Bros. will be remaining with us as ongoing resellers.
Why a given item should be worth much more just 'coz it spends a few days, months or years in a particular collection is a mystery to me and seems to have caused as much misery as good in many other spheres of collecting.

invincibleoverlord wrote:They do in other fields of collecting like The Mile High Collection in comics, The Oscar Davis Ferrari's etc. They come from old well cared for collections, and you know excatlly what your getting with a guarantee and there reputation to uphold.

But with no guarantee as to what the subsequent owners may have done.
"Well cared for" might be a bit excessive for those comics though... ;)
Tales From the Database - Mile High Comics, Chuck Rozanski

(Oh, and I liked the "Without going into the details of the exact amount I paid" bit, too... Hrrr...)

invincibleoverlord wrote:These kinds of items can command up to 10% -20% more. This may be a little of a stretch with old RPG's but 20+ years from now? who knows?

(And sometimes much more than 20% more...).
Agreed. And not to say it ain't going to turn out that way, even though the market is neither mainstream nor recognised as ultra high-dollar, at present.
(Personally, I'd rather no-one went all-out to hype it excessively, but that's just my opinion again).

invincibleoverlord wrote:The bottom line in collecting is well known collection's command premium and beyond, and always will.

Mike

Not always... For example, in philatelic collecting, middle-highish value items from well known collections rarely go for any particular premium. Yes, they'll sell, but people in that field tend to like a history to go along with a given item (something to talk about casually) rather than pay through the nose for it.

And of course the historicity of particular collections requires to be established in benchmark terms...

-

(Anyhow; personally, if I bid on the next Burnie Bros. "Field Regulations"
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5929706573
, it won't be a radically different bid compared with the previous such item, all of a sudden;
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5911945048 ).

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:09 pm 
 

Ah, our messages crossed...
*nods strongly to all that*

darkseraphim wrote:The interesting thing about markets is that they're entirely based on speculative worth.

Yup. Not as though it's a barrel of oil we can use for heating or lighting (if we had a power plant ;))

(Although I'm reliably told that some people can build houses with surplus RPG stock :D).

---

darkseraphim wrote:To which end, a couple questions ...
8)

What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone?  What do you think is the current price?

Same for H1.  What's the logical price?  What's the current price?

*g*. Nice questions in this context.

Yes, but there is also sustainable and popular market demand for both of these which doesn't exist for Boot Hill to anything like the same extent.
Thus the "foundation of logic" would appear to dictate a higher base from which to work, taking other factors aside... (and, of course, there is yet another additional factor at play with H1).

Anyhow, it's kinda neat to pull out a book and threaten the players with Great Cthulu... :P
(Still overpriced, IMHO, despite this!)

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:54 pm 
 

But you do go on to say so for different reasons; expecting a future premium because of provenance.

OK, this may be true for one-off/unique disposals of items (usually high value ones) from given collections, but Burnie Bros. will be remaining with us as ongoing resellers.
Why a given item should be worth much more just 'coz it spends a few days, months or years in a particular collection is a mystery to me and seems to have caused as much misery as good in many other spheres of collecting.


That's not why I pay a premium for items from Burntwire or Tadashie; the reason I'm happy to pay a little more is because of the level of service they've provided in the past. Every time I've bought from them, they've delivered the promised item promptly, well packaged, and condition is always exceptional. So the premium comes from a desire to deal with a known source, and also because these sellers have a keen eye, and their items are going to be in better condition than a lot of other peoples because they acquired the item originally with a judicious eye, and taken care of it properly while they've been the owner.

Regards

Mike

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:04 pm 
 

And as I said before, there is no discernible logic when it comes to the price an item will fetch. Collecting in general is usually more heart over head; although some fields (I don't know... wine? stamps?) people collect with a view to sell at a profit later on, mostly people collect because they have an interest in the thing they're acquiring, and profit is secondary, or not a priority at all. RPG would be the king of heart over head - who here collects just to make a profit down the track?

A few months ago I bid on a copy of Guidon's Alexander, and was outbid at $150. Two weeks later, I snagged a copy for $57. Earlier on, I was determined to get a copy of the Battle of Five Armies, and paid $170 for a boxed set after my snipe beat out Burnie's. Yet not long afterwards, Burnie picked up an unpunched bagged version for $75, and the same week I got a punched bagged version for $52. Move forward a few months, and there's a copy up for grabs thats missing the original box or bag - and it goes for more than $100.

The market fluctuates way too much to try and apply logic to prices, for everything except the big ticket items. The price of an item depends solely on who sees the auction, whether they're in the market for the item that week, and (if so) how much they're prepared to pay for it that week.

Regards

Mike

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:14 pm 
 

Patience is the key to collecting.  Collecting based on impulsiveness or desire only results in unhappiness and the unnecessary lightening of ones purse.  The final outcome is that the collector usually ends up being consumed by collecting and eventually has to abandon it...

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:24 pm 
 

Harami said:

Personally; bid what one feels an item to be worth, whatever the type of auction and bidding.

  The problem I feel with alot of the bidding these items is that there is no guidline to there value. And at the given time of auction you'ed better at least take a swing if you have any interest in whats on the block. Win or lose, pay to much or to little etc.  I'd would have paid 255.61 + for the AD&D Dungeon Masters Guide Promo Poster that I lost to Paul, now that I know that it's worth somewhere near that. The only thing that stoped me from going higher was inexperience. I not mad or disappointed, but will I see one again? who knows?
  Experience plays a major role here in this field of collecting. He knew the value as stated here on the forum, and he won the poster. I may be a long time gamer, but I can face the facts I'm just a newbie around the hardcore RPG collectors. What I do have is experience at auctions and e-bay or similar types are far from this. I think we all know this. At an auto auction for example you walk around the car, ask the owner or representative question face to face, and more importantly you see the players involved and there's always one more chance to bid a little higher if you really want it. Not a wild guess at a proxy bid.
 I may come across as a little rash in my collecting, but I'm a collector. And like yourselves I'm sure hindsight drives you crazy. And I hate being behind the curve especially in fields I love. Like in the days of the rec.games.frp.marketplace when all I was interested in was completing my Forgotten Realms run, and passed by countless gems that are now a small fortune around here. I have a funny feeling there my be a future hindsight with alot of this stuff once the D&D kids of the 80's (100x that of the 70's ) get a little older and wallets a little fatter.... J.M.O. look what the Baby Boomer's did to the classic car market and old comics once they hit there 40's.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2004 8:33 am 
 

darkseraphim wrote:<Lots of really smart stuff snipped>
What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone?  What do you think is the current price?

No kidding.  I tried to pick up one of these cheap over the last couple of months, because I'd never actually seen the contents.  I set my high bid at $26, which I figured was reasonable, since these things are not rare at all, despite the hype, and I didn't get one until this month (in relatively poor condition but I wanted the contents, not the spine).  I believe I paid $8-12.

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Post Posted: Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:05 am 
 

invincibleoverlord wrote:OCE's, no box, with a BIN of $99.95  :? and starting bid of $64.95  :?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 04876&rd=1

Heh, the OCEs do still sell for non-trivial money, sometimes...
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5928470611

(Well, at least the seller apologised for blanket-advertising as 1st edition, 1974. Seems to have been rewarded for that).

  

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Post Posted: Wed Oct 27, 2004 5:05 am 
 

darkseraphim wrote:What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone? What do you think is the current price?

Same for H1. What's the logical price? What's the current price?


deimos3428 wrote:No kidding. I tried to pick up one of these cheap over the last couple of months, because I'd never actually seen the contents. I set my high bid at $26, which I figured was reasonable, since these things are not rare at all, despite the hype, and I didn't get one until this month (in relatively poor condition but I wanted the contents, not the spine). I believe I paid $8-12.


The thing about the Cthulhu/Melnibonean mythos is: They are really freakin' cool.  Okay, from my viewpoint anyway, they will always have a special place.  You see, way back in the day when I was just a lad, two of my friends had a Deities and Demigods.  I remember looking through them and thinking how cool both those mythos were.  Cthulhu and Melnibonean were based on fictional stories by recent authors - they were different, the deities were different and the Gods were powerful!  Damn powerful!!!  And, when you are 11 years old, powerful stuff is that much cooler!!!!   Virtually every deity in the Cthulhu myths have 400 HP, are massive and have 25 strength.  Same can be said for the Melnibonean myths - check out the class levels and ability scores!  I think that Donblas the Justice Maker could beat the shit out of Zeus and then take on Odin!

So, when I go out to Kay-Bee toys and buy my own copy, I get home to discover that they are not included!  I went nuts. . . I actually wrote a letter to TSR requesting that they send me a copy of the missing myths (they never responded  :roll: ).

I wasn't till several years later when one of those friends stopped playing that I acquired his book for $20.00.  

There is a certain rarity, as those myths can only be found in two printings.  For instance, many casual collectors couldn't care less if their Players Handbook is a 4th, 5th, 6th,7th or 8th print (so there are many more to choose from).

(These mythos also inspired me to read various Lovecraft stories and the Elric saga - so again, there is an "emotional" connection.)

H1 has a similar appeal - it is the first module to take characters beyond 14th level.  (Power = cool).  It is also difficult to find a complete one and even harder to find a complete one with an high grade box.


When looking beyond rarity to determine demand keep these things in mind:

EVIL sells higher

OUTER PLANES sells higher

HIGH LEVEL sells higher

EROTICA sells higher

DEVILS/DEMONS sells higher

EPIC SCOPE sells higher

You will find many crossovers in those categories - Planescape has 'em all!!!    Just look at the various RPG's and what items are "hottest". Unless they are true collector's items (because of rarity), they usually have at least one of the above traits.


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Post Posted: Wed Oct 27, 2004 5:31 am 
 

beyondthebreach wrote:When looking beyond rarity to determine demand keep these things in mind:

EVIL sells higher

OUTER PLANES sells higher

HIGH LEVEL sells higher

EROTICA sells higher

DEVILS/DEMONS sells higher

EPIC SCOPE sells higher

You will find many crossovers in those categories - Planescape has 'em all!!!    Just look at the various RPG's and what items are "hottest". Unless they are true collector's items (because of rarity), they usually have at least one of the above traits.


Very true and observed with a keen eye.

What does it tell you about RPG gamers? We're a bunch of power-hungry, evil and satanic sex-maniacs!!!  :twisted:


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Post Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:22 am 
 

Now this is just ridiculous - an OCE for $227.50!!!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5929706320

Well done bernie!

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:32 am 
 

Some guys are serious about there OCE's. This one is a beauty, but $150 would have been tops I'd think.

  

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Post Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:36 am 
 

Yet another 0 feedback 1 day wonder bidder boosting up the price.


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:41 am 
 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 79499&rd=1

thats gotta be the record on a b2

  


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 2:29 pm 
 

Yeah, I agree.  I just pointed out that item to another collector myself.  Not even intact!  I wish I could get $14 (inc. shipping) for a partial B2.


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 4:57 pm 
 

B2 might be making a comeback....

cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewIt ... 5931830562

  


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 5:33 pm 
 

mdr003 wrote:B2 might be making a comeback....



cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewIt ... 5931830562




Hey look, it's the christian ?shill? / newbie again...



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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 5:47 pm 
 

He's been out bid! 8O

  


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 7:30 pm 
 

lol maybe its time I unload my 70ish B2's lol

  
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