Silliest auction price of 2004-2005 announced!
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Post Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:01 pm 
 

Aneoth, easy there! I wasn't insulting you at all. I was wondering if I had gotten a steal on it, that's all. When I bid on it, I had actually set the snipe up for $22, which is why I was curious.
FWIW, if you have any questions about non-TSR D&D stuff, feel free to drop me a line. I would be happy to tell you what something usually goes for if I know. And since I'm dropping out of the collecting biz, I obviously won't snipe it from you, even though I wouldn't do that anyways.


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Post Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:21 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote: Aneoth, easy there! I wasn't insulting you at all. I was wondering if I had gotten a steal on it, that's all. When I bid on it, I had actually set the snipe up for $22, which is why I was curious. FWIW, if you have any questions about non-TSR D&D stuff, feel free to drop me a line. I would be happy to tell you what something usually goes for if I know. And since I'm dropping out of the collecting biz, I obviously won't snipe it from you, even though I wouldn't do that anyways.


What does FWIW mean?

Another example of something I can learn here.

OK. My sarcasm was seemingly ill placed and/or ill used in my previous post.  :oops:

Please be assured that my thanking of the Acaeum was after I returned the sarcasm to the sack of spell components. Every word stated thanking the Acaeum and also those with more knowledge than me were sincere and quite true. I truly do appreciate this place, and those who dwell here.

I meant no ill will towards you Deadlord, in any way shape or form. I truly do appreciate information from ANYONE, no matter what the source. Even if it was something I already knew. One can always sift through unneeded data at a later time. But if you do not listen and take note, then potentially valuable information might not be taken in. I have always appreciated being able to learn from those with more experience than I have in any given endeavor, and I have never thought that I knew it all in any category or field.

I also meant what I said about not knowing beans about non-TSR DnD items. I truly know very little about them, but would like to.

Lastly, nothing you (Deadlord) said injured me in any way. Not my pride, nor my sense of knowledge. I was joking with you. Truthfully, I was being somewhat sarcastic with it, and I now feel that perhaps my writing was poor enough so that my true meaning was unclear to the reader. I shall attempt to improve on that in the future.

  

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Post Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:32 pm 
 

Hi Aneoth -

I wouldn't worry paying $12 for what someone else paid two bucks for. Prices on ebay fluctuate enough for all items, but especially so for items that generally go for under $25. If Castle Thrax is worth $12 to you, then it's worth $12 - you got value for money.

As Deadlord said, when he scored Thrax for $2 he had a $22 bid lined up on it. It just needed one other person looking for a Thrax on the same day and he might have had to pay $22.

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Post Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:49 pm 
 

FWIW - For What It's Worth

  

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Post Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:00 pm 
 

The thing about non-TSR stuff is that it has a very wide margin of pricing, and unless you know what something is and how rare it is, it is difficult to guess at what it is worth.
For example, everyone knows what Dwarven Glory is and what it usually goes for. But Kalifax, which I picked up for a couple bucks, is far rarer. In terms of $$, it is probably worth less, but I've seen about a dozen DG's and only one Kalifax in my life.


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Post Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:41 pm 
 

OCE's, no box, with a BIN of $99.95  :? and starting bid of $64.95  :?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 04876&rd=1

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:39 am 
 

invincibleoverlord wrote:OCE's, no box, with a BIN of $99.95  :? and starting bid of $64.95  :?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 04876&rd=1

*g*.

This from the man who just bid $137 on a 2nd print Boot Hill (without winning it) :P
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5928192307

(And here was us thinking $50ish for a nice copy of the rarer 1st print was getting a bit heavy.
There will be some smiling in Oz at this...).

...

Must admit I was relieved and happier to see that GW MM go for $103 after recent lowish prices. Seems to be very hit-and-miss, dependent on condition and advertising.

Anyone else think there's a "Burnie factor" helping some of these sales along? ;)

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:04 am 
 

Yeah, that $52 for the first print is looking pretty good. But you know how it is on ebay, I've given up trying to work out 'market value' for stuff as it's too unpredictable. I just work out how much I'd be happy to pay for an item and go with that. Usually that depends a lot more on whats in the pay packet that week, and how many bills arrive with it. Some weeks I have a fair bit of spare cash, others I'm broke - it just affects whether I'm more likely to appear in the 'Fun Finds' or 'Silliest Bid' threads that week.

There's always going to be a lot of interest in Burntwire's auctions, for the same reason as sellers like Tadashie get a lot of bidders - buyers know the items are going to be in great condition. Or perhaps there's just a competition to see who will give Burnie his 1000th feedback...

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:11 pm 
 

Harami wrote:

This from the man who just bid $137 on a 2nd print Boot Hill (without winning it)

 Your right David, $137 proxy for a Boot Hill 2nd print is silly  :oops: (it was actually $136.67), and I'm glad I lost it. With myself the proxy game is something that irritates me. So many auctions have been lost in the past due to not high enough of a proxy, and someone wins it for a dollar more :x . I was hoping the higest bid would be under $100. Granted this kind of thinking/bidding could greatly overvalue an item if two or more people are on the same page like in this case. Then someone gets burned, you just hope it's not you, or like myself being a longtime collector comics, cars, rpg's etc.. you take the good with the bad. for just a many times I felt I overpaid, I've made out like a bandit too.  :D

 I wonder what kinds of prices these old RPG's would command if there was open-end bidding in $5 (2 Pounds 71 ) increments with no close until the going once, twice, sold??? Talk about a heart attack on Sunday nights......

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:17 pm 
 

mdr003 wrote:...There's always going to be a lot of interest in Burntwire's auctions, for the same reason as sellers like Tadashie get a lot of bidders - buyers know the items are going to be in great condition....


You are absolutely right. I have Tadashie listed in My E-Bay as a favorite seller. Exactly for the reasons you stated. High quality, quantity, and dependable service. No rip offs from Tadashie, guaranteed. I know it will arrive in the condition stated. Just as it has always been in the past. Once a seller provides me with exceptional service, I tend to stay with that seller whenever possible. If they have what I am looking for, then they will get my bids. I have purchased 7 low priced adventure Modules from Tadashie just this week, and I am bidding actively on several others.

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:56 pm 
 

I totally agree with Aneoth, certain sellers should command a premium. They do in other fields of collecting like The Mile High Collection in comics, The Oscar Davis Ferrari's etc. They come from old well cared for collections, and you know excatlly what your getting with a guarantee and there reputation to uphold. These kinds of items can command up to 10% -20% more. This may be a little of a stretch with old RPG's but 20+ years from now? who knows? twenty years ago I was offered a 61 Ferrari California Spyder from a premium collecton (Actor James Coburn's) for $100,000 about 20% over premium. I passed and went with a cheaper example for about 3/4 that (Stupid  :x ). Today premium Cal's go in the range of $1.2million to $1.5million where's the other's can be had for $500 - $750 thousand. The bottom line in collecting is well known collection's command premium and beyond, and always will.

Mike

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:23 pm 
 

(02 cents only, of course)

invincibleoverlord wrote:Your right David, $137 proxy for a Boot Hill 2nd print is silly  :oops: (it was actually $136.67), and I'm glad I lost it. With myself the proxy game is something that irritates me. So many auctions have been lost in the past due to not high enough of a proxy, and someone wins it for a dollar more :x . I was hoping the higest bid would be under $100.

Personally; bid what one feels an item to be worth, whatever the type of auction and bidding.

To excessively overbid then turn around and say you're glad you didn't win only leaves a sour taste in the mouth of the winner.
Better to keep the bids sensible and not to win "everything". Lose and (mentally) congratulate the winner, in the knowledge that the next similar item up won't be based on the expectations of a closing price now excessively high.

Of course, some of us have more money to throw around than others and inevitably with rarer items, "bubbles" will happen...

invincibleoverlord wrote:Granted this kind of thinking/bidding could greatly overvalue an item if two or more people are on the same page like in this case.

Presuming they're reading the same book... ;)

Yeah, Boot Hill's got a history. Yes, it's a nice copy (for a museum, say), uncommon and quite desirable, no doubt.
But (from a TSR perspective) it's not D&D (or Warriors of Mars ;)).
And it's 1977+, not 1975 or 1974...

Now people are likely to be bidding high on the next such copy (in lesser condition, probably) on very little sound ground other than "that's what the previous one fetched". Or the seller gets greedy and sticks in a very high reserve...
But then, what decides the "value" of anything?

invincibleoverlord wrote:Then someone gets burned, you just hope it's not you, or like myself being a longtime collector comics, cars, rpg's etc.. you take the good with the bad. for just a many times I felt I overpaid, I've made out like a bandit too.  :D

Interesting approach...

invincibleoverlord wrote:I wonder what kinds of prices these old RPG's would command if there was open-end bidding in $5 (2 Pounds 71 ) increments with no close until the going once, twice, sold??? Talk about a heart attack on Sunday nights......

Difficult to tell whether they'd be higher or lower, but I know eBay is the reality we're currently dealing with...
(*g*. And rounding prices to the nearest dollar makes sense from a readability perspective, OK? Just like bidding whole dollars doesn't make sense from a bidding perspective in the current ballgame ;))

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:43 pm 
 

The interesting thing about markets is that they're entirely based on speculative worth.  Say module XYZ is fairly rare and believed to be worth $50.  I bid on one and win it, in a hard fight, for $80.  My competitors think, "Hmm, must be more rare than I thought.  What does he know that I dont?"  They make a mental note to next time bid $85, because now they're really curious.

The next one comes along, I snag it again, after a hard fight up to $90.  People are now extremely curious.  I go on vacation, competitors feel it's time to strike.  Unfortunately, there's five of them, all thinking along the same lines - the item is rarer than the original value leads them to believe.

I come back and find that the auction was a bloodfest, and it went for $150.  Scratching my head, I ask them what they were thinking.  "Hey, you guys, why are you bidding so much?  I promised that module as a birthday present to a friend.  It's only worth $50, but I was willing to pay $80 on emotional principle.  He liked it so much, he insisted I had to get one.  I got it for $90.  Then I was done - knowing I was overbidding in both circumstances.  What's with this $150 stuff?"  People grumble, and make a note that it's still worth only $50.  The insanity is over.

But then, some newbies who watched the last one go for $150, while checking the value at some site at $50, realize it's a great specualtive piece - it's tripled in value in just 6 months!  The next auction, all of the veterans bid a sensible $50.  Two newbies get in a bidding frenzy and spike the next one to $160.

So ... what's the market value?  The "real," logically established scarcity value of $50, or the hyped-up $160?  If you sold one a week after the $160 sale, "Rare!  Out of print!  Must have!" then what do you think you'll get for it?
:wink:

Markets have a foundation of logic.  Speculation does the rest.  The trick is to remember that markets are fluid.  You can keep the "real" price in your head, but the actual current price will fluctuate on a sine curve, depending on hysteria.

Check out L3, for example.  The module alone often goes more than what you'll pay for a complete shrinkwrapped Silver Anniversary box.

To which end, a couple questions ...
8)

What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone?  What do you think is the current price?

Same for H1.  What's the logical price?  What's the current price?

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:01 pm 
 

invincibleoverlord wrote:I totally agree with Aneoth, certain sellers should command a premium.

But you do go on to say so for different reasons; expecting a future premium because of provenance.

OK, this may be true for one-off/unique disposals of items (usually high value ones) from given collections, but Burnie Bros. will be remaining with us as ongoing resellers.
Why a given item should be worth much more just 'coz it spends a few days, months or years in a particular collection is a mystery to me and seems to have caused as much misery as good in many other spheres of collecting.

invincibleoverlord wrote:They do in other fields of collecting like The Mile High Collection in comics, The Oscar Davis Ferrari's etc. They come from old well cared for collections, and you know excatlly what your getting with a guarantee and there reputation to uphold.

But with no guarantee as to what the subsequent owners may have done.
"Well cared for" might be a bit excessive for those comics though... ;)
Tales From the Database - Mile High Comics, Chuck Rozanski

(Oh, and I liked the "Without going into the details of the exact amount I paid" bit, too... Hrrr...)

invincibleoverlord wrote:These kinds of items can command up to 10% -20% more. This may be a little of a stretch with old RPG's but 20+ years from now? who knows?

(And sometimes much more than 20% more...).
Agreed. And not to say it ain't going to turn out that way, even though the market is neither mainstream nor recognised as ultra high-dollar, at present.
(Personally, I'd rather no-one went all-out to hype it excessively, but that's just my opinion again).

invincibleoverlord wrote:The bottom line in collecting is well known collection's command premium and beyond, and always will.

Mike

Not always... For example, in philatelic collecting, middle-highish value items from well known collections rarely go for any particular premium. Yes, they'll sell, but people in that field tend to like a history to go along with a given item (something to talk about casually) rather than pay through the nose for it.

And of course the historicity of particular collections requires to be established in benchmark terms...

-

(Anyhow; personally, if I bid on the next Burnie Bros. "Field Regulations"
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5929706573
, it won't be a radically different bid compared with the previous such item, all of a sudden;
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5911945048 ).

  


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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:09 pm 
 

Ah, our messages crossed...
*nods strongly to all that*

darkseraphim wrote:The interesting thing about markets is that they're entirely based on speculative worth.

Yup. Not as though it's a barrel of oil we can use for heating or lighting (if we had a power plant ;))

(Although I'm reliably told that some people can build houses with surplus RPG stock :D).

---

darkseraphim wrote:To which end, a couple questions ...
8)

What do you think the logical scarcity price is for Deities & Demigods with Cthulhu and Melnibone?  What do you think is the current price?

Same for H1.  What's the logical price?  What's the current price?

*g*. Nice questions in this context.

Yes, but there is also sustainable and popular market demand for both of these which doesn't exist for Boot Hill to anything like the same extent.
Thus the "foundation of logic" would appear to dictate a higher base from which to work, taking other factors aside... (and, of course, there is yet another additional factor at play with H1).

Anyhow, it's kinda neat to pull out a book and threaten the players with Great Cthulu... :P
(Still overpriced, IMHO, despite this!)

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:54 pm 
 

But you do go on to say so for different reasons; expecting a future premium because of provenance.

OK, this may be true for one-off/unique disposals of items (usually high value ones) from given collections, but Burnie Bros. will be remaining with us as ongoing resellers.
Why a given item should be worth much more just 'coz it spends a few days, months or years in a particular collection is a mystery to me and seems to have caused as much misery as good in many other spheres of collecting.


That's not why I pay a premium for items from Burntwire or Tadashie; the reason I'm happy to pay a little more is because of the level of service they've provided in the past. Every time I've bought from them, they've delivered the promised item promptly, well packaged, and condition is always exceptional. So the premium comes from a desire to deal with a known source, and also because these sellers have a keen eye, and their items are going to be in better condition than a lot of other peoples because they acquired the item originally with a judicious eye, and taken care of it properly while they've been the owner.

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:04 pm 
 

And as I said before, there is no discernible logic when it comes to the price an item will fetch. Collecting in general is usually more heart over head; although some fields (I don't know... wine? stamps?) people collect with a view to sell at a profit later on, mostly people collect because they have an interest in the thing they're acquiring, and profit is secondary, or not a priority at all. RPG would be the king of heart over head - who here collects just to make a profit down the track?

A few months ago I bid on a copy of Guidon's Alexander, and was outbid at $150. Two weeks later, I snagged a copy for $57. Earlier on, I was determined to get a copy of the Battle of Five Armies, and paid $170 for a boxed set after my snipe beat out Burnie's. Yet not long afterwards, Burnie picked up an unpunched bagged version for $75, and the same week I got a punched bagged version for $52. Move forward a few months, and there's a copy up for grabs thats missing the original box or bag - and it goes for more than $100.

The market fluctuates way too much to try and apply logic to prices, for everything except the big ticket items. The price of an item depends solely on who sees the auction, whether they're in the market for the item that week, and (if so) how much they're prepared to pay for it that week.

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Mike

  

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Post Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:14 pm 
 

Patience is the key to collecting.  Collecting based on impulsiveness or desire only results in unhappiness and the unnecessary lightening of ones purse.  The final outcome is that the collector usually ends up being consumed by collecting and eventually has to abandon it...

  
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