Silliest auction price of 2004-2005 announced!
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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:41 pm 
 

improvstone wrote:I can understand private sales not being included but to exclude any of the eBay sales no matter how silly would skew the figures in a false direction rather than the direction the market has taken.

Presuming all sales are genuine, yes; otherwise it wouldn't be an "eBay average".

But then, there are plenty of other skew factors, such as multiple item lots not being included.
...Am sure it's still a can of worms even when trying to adopt a "simple" approach.


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:43 pm 
 

improvstone wrote:
deimos3428 wrote:Pretty sure it would, but we tend to focus on the rares. I don't think that a late print folio is going to get updated very often. ;) But if we start discriminating against crazy bidders, that quickly becomes an extremely fine line. *cough* ST1 *cough* :lol:


I can understand private sales not being included but to exclude any of the eBay sales no matter how silly would skew the figures in a false direction rather than the direction the market has taken.


That is only true to a certain extent IMO. You cant allow one sale, particularly on a pretty common item,  to determine where the market is going.  I am by no means saying that we should not include this particular sale, but I think someone would have a valid case for excluding it. To give an example of what I mean, lets say 2 newbies get into a ridiculous bidding war over an old beat up B2 so that it goes for over $100.00, that surely does not mean that the market for B2s is now on a huge upswing from its current $2 value, it just means that 2 idiots got into a bidding war over it and it is a complete abberation.  This greyhawk folio auction is certainly closer to being an abberation than it is to the market for it being on an upswing. Just my $.02 :)


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:
improvstone wrote:
I can understand private sales not being included but to exclude any of the eBay sales no matter how silly would skew the figures in a false direction rather than the direction the market has taken.


That is only true to a certain extent IMO. You cant allow one sale, particularly on a pretty common item, to determine where the market is going. I am by no means saying that we should not include this particular sale, but I think someone would have a valid case for excluding it. To give an example of what I mean, lets say 2 newbies get into a ridiculous bidding war over an old beat up B2 so that it goes for over $100.00, that surely does not mean that the market for B2s is now on a huge upswing from its current $2 value, it just means that 2 idiots got into a bidding war over it and it is a complete abberation. This greyhawk folio auction is certainly closer to being an abberation than it is to the market for it being on an upswing. Just my $.02 :)


But surely you are averaging the results... therefore on 100 sales of B2s one over the top price will not have a huge impact??

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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:56 pm 
 

improvstone wrote:
bclarkie wrote:
That is only true to a certain extent IMO. You cant allow one sale, particularly on a pretty common item, to determine where the market is going. I am by no means saying that we should not include this particular sale, but I think someone would have a valid case for excluding it. To give an example of what I mean, lets say 2 newbies get into a ridiculous bidding war over an old beat up B2 so that it goes for over $100.00, that surely does not mean that the market for B2s is now on a huge upswing from its current $2 value, it just means that 2 idiots got into a bidding war over it and it is a complete abberation. This greyhawk folio auction is certainly closer to being an abberation than it is to the market for it being on an upswing. Just my $.02 :)


But surely you are averaging the results... therefore on 100 sales of B2s one over the top price will not have a huge impact??


There is an average being used that is also based on what the items condition is in the formula. Giving a simple example and not using condition to base a value. Lets say you track 50 B2s to a sum of $150.00. At that point the average B2 based on 50 auctions is currently $3.00. Now lets take that number and figure in the B2 that goes for over $100.00 lets say it goes for $110. Using that figure you now have 51 B2s at a total of $310.00, which now means the average goes from $3.00 all the way up to $6.08. That one auction alone, if it is included, has caused the average B2 price to increase by more than 100%.


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:08 pm 
 

(And a BIN is a "valid" sale, too, no? Even if it's $10 for a Character Archaic...)

  

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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:24 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:(And a BIN is a "valid" sale, too, no? Even if it's $10 for a Character Archaic...)


Never should have posted that one  8)


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:30 pm 
 

*looks at the PotVQ auction and keels off the chair!!!!*

well surely that will adjust the value of that one :D

***walks away whistling nothing in particular***



  

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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:33 pm 
 

Just as an aside. Does anyone think the auction price for the Misty Isles is getting hurt by the PotVQ being listed at the same time?


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:41 pm 
 

killjoy32 wrote:*looks at the PotVQ auction and keels off the chair!!!!*

well surely that will adjust the value of that one :D

***walks away whistling nothing in particular***

Yup, just a tad more than you paid, Al... :D

I still prefer the reassurance of the not-so-easy-to-photocopy black folder!


aside: I forgot to ask in a timely manner 'bout whether "House Copy" was on the shrink or the cover sheet, not that that really matters to me! :oops: Did anyone find out?

  

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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:41 pm 
 

Marlith wrote:Just as an aside. Does anyone think the auction price for the Misty Isles is getting hurt by the PotVQ being listed at the same time?


i wouldnt have thought so. if i could afford it, i would bid for both :D

but i have a PotVQ so dont really need another, tho i would like a misty isles....just cant afford to bid right now as my funds are depleted :)

just for now mind .....  :wink:



  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:26 pm 
 

Marlith wrote:Just as an aside. Does anyone think the auction price for the Misty Isles is getting hurt by the PotVQ being listed at the same time?


Um I guess not!!! 8O Shit and here I was thinking I actually had a chance once again. :roll:


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:26 pm 
 

Marlith wrote:Just as an aside. Does anyone think the auction price for the Misty Isles is getting hurt by the PotVQ being listed at the same time?

No, alas not.... :(

(Congrats, Jeff)

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:28 pm 
 

Any last-second guesses on the PoVQ?

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:29 pm 
 

afoolandhis$ wrote:Any last-second guesses on the PoVQ?

No... :P


At least I didn't "lose" the Misty to a low bid, anyhow... :)

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:30 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:
Marlith wrote:Just as an aside. Does anyone think the auction price for the Misty Isles is getting hurt by the PotVQ being listed at the same time?

No, alas not.... :(

(Congrats, Jeff)

Geez David, you came in a lot higher than I expected anyone to come in at all.  I know that thing was in awesome condition and the source being the original author certainly increases the value, but wow!


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:30 pm 
 

Someone has already predicted 1100.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:30 pm 
 

Well whaddaya know...congrats, David.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:31 pm 
 

That'll do nicely... :D

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:32 pm 
 

OK, now I've looked at the bidding gap, I'm not feeling so good! :lol: :lol:

Please someone tell me their snipe didn't register! :P

  


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Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:33 pm 
 

Was wondering why you're up so late.  Sleep well on that one.  Nice win.

  
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