mdr003 wrote:I think auctions such as this one highlight the main problem with the valuation process - which is that the pool of items, and the pool of buyers, is simply not large enough to be statistically relevant.



I don't know much about statistics, but I would think that to plot a trend and estimate future trends, your sample size must be a certain size. For items like the character sheets, ST1, a bunch of others - the number in existance, and the number of people willing to bid, is just too small.



Look at today's auction - if either Gygax or A2jeff decided not to bid, the final price is $280 - a 40% drop. That's just one person missing the auction, or having his snipe missed because of a PC error. And now A2jeff has a copy, will it mean the next auction won't go to $449 - because one of the two people who got it to that level is no longer in the market?



Of course with so few items in existance, it's hard to set a standard. I was willing to bid more on this lot than I would have on another similar lot, just because it was coming from the original designer.



I don't know what the answer is. My opinion is that the current process used here at the Acaeum is the best possible under the circumstances - it records sale prices for all rare and semi-rare items, and is a good indication on what you could expect the item to fetch in the future. But don't be surprised by wild fluctuations because of the pool size.



Anyhow. I rarely look at the price index at the Acaeum before deciding what to bid (I rarely bid on the rares anyway so its somewhat of a moot point). I decide whats its worth to me, and bid accordingly.



Regards



Mike

Very well put. But I have this haunting feeling that the higher end prices are being held up by a very few bidders. What happens in 10-15 years when they are gone? Look what happened to the comic book market in the last decade. Collectors fell off in droves, now you can buy an entire series for pennies on the dollar. To make matters worse, there were far more collectors/readers of comic books than our little D&D niche. I know it is not a great comparison, but there it is anyway.



That is really the only thing that bothers me about the high $ rares. If I want to dump them in 15 years, will there be a market, or will I just have a bunch of useless old D&D items that no one cares about. I don't need to make money off them, but I don't want to lose my shirt either. Its not like I am likely to hand them down to my kids or anything like that.



I do think that the D&D collector market is in its golden age right now. Prices on numerous not-so-rare items are at all-time highs compared to just three years ago. Will it continue? I doubt it. It is just a case of 30-40 year-old gamers hitting our stride economically and shelling out larger amounts of cash to fulfill our desire to relive the glory days through collecting. Spending $100 on something today is simply alot easier for many of us now than it was when we were 20 - even after adjusting for inflation. So what happens when we quit collecting? Are there enough members of a younger generation to fill the gap? I am not so sure.



I know it is hobby, but it can be an expensive hobby. Just think about dropping $2000 in a solid mutual fund for 15 years. Will that ST1 compare? No freaking way.

Good thoughts on the topic.  I agree the price is a little higher than I expected it would go for, but would have paid more for this particular copy.  As was previously stated, a mint copy from the designer is extraordinarily rare....especially on an item that most often has missing pages, extensive writing, and plenty of use.  I've been wanting one of these for a while too!



In terms of valuations, I disagree the market will bottom out.  On the contrary, I believe once our generation hits retirement, with more time on our hands, there will be plenty of campaigns and adventures to be had.  I certainly look forward to it!  Having said that, IMHO there's plenty of market fuel for the next 40-50 years.

GraysonAC wrote:

bbarsh wrote:But I have this haunting feeling that the higher end prices are being held up by a very few bidders. What happens in 10-15 years when they are gone? Look what happened to the comic book market in the last decade. Collectors fell off in droves, now you can buy an entire series for pennies on the dollar. To make matters worse, there were far more collectors/readers of comic books than our little D&D niche. I know it is not a great comparison, but there it is anyway.

Yup, that's my feeling as well. Guys my age grew up with 2nd Edition, not 1st, and not many will have any interest in collecting stuff that has no nostalgic value to them.

I suspect that the market will eventually drop off, but Jeff does make a good point about when that might happen. I do agree that folks young enough to grow up on 2nd edition & now 3rd edition will not be nearly as likely to want 1st edition stuff, however, you have to also take into the condideration that the average 1st edition collectors age ranges anywhere from the ages 28 to 42. I think that you can count on the fact that a lot of folks in that range will not suddenly lose interest as they get older. I imagine some of them will, but not everyone. With that there will be a small influx of younger folks who do get into the collecting of 1st edition stuff, probably enough to compensate for folks losing interest. That being said though as time goes on though in 30 to 40 years(look at EGG, Frank and many of the creators pof the game who still actively play & collect, most who are now in their 50's & 60's and some cases their 70's), the mortality rate will eventually really start to take its toll on those who collect these items, and that IMHO will be where the hobby starts to see a decrease in value per the times(i.e inflation, cost of living, economic conditions, etc. taken into account versus what the current values of the time are at that point). Just my 2 coppers.

bbarsh wrote:Very well put. But I have this haunting feeling that the higher end prices are being held up by a very few bidders. What happens in 10-15 years when they are gone? Look what happened to the comic book market in the last decade. Collectors fell off in droves, now you can buy an entire series for pennies on the dollar. To make matters worse, there were far more collectors/readers of comic books than our little D&D niche. I know it is not a great comparison, but there it is anyway.

It's true that the high-end prices are driven by a very few hard core collectors with deep pockets. So few, you could probably name them individually (I seem to recall a thread some time ago which did exactly that). I'm not sure I see a dramatic falling off in value though, even in 10-15 years. Think back even 2-3 years ago, and compare the 'big names' in collecting to those today - many will be the same, but some (eg Burntwire?) will have decided to cut down collecting, or even sell off - perhaps because they have a change of interest, or they now have everything they want. But others spring up to take their place regularly - using the membership of the Acaeum as a guide, there seems to be a pretty constant stream of new members, who find the site, read up on the rares and become hooked.



I never played OD&D - my first taste of the game was in 1978/79 with the basic set, followed closely by a move to AD&D. Yet the attraction of OD&D supplements & accessories is much stronger than anything else, because it is the original edition. I suspect that as each new wave of collectors hits their collecting drive (in their 30's/40's, lots of disposable income), a small fraction will research the game and become hooked. Not many to be sure, but it only takes a handful and the premium prices will continue.



Regards



Mike

harami2000 wrote:WoM with damp stain/rub on front cover (+ 1 other); $270

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5245500966



@ Brian; yup...





(at least you got one at long last, Mike... saw ya hanging around here, waiting! ^^)

Heh, anyone want to sell me one for less than $200.00. I pay quickly.

Yeah, I should be working but it's easy to be distracted.



It was a hard decision - originally when I saw the auction I had decided that the two books were worth $250 to me (that Heritage book can be hard to find, and will generally fetch $40 or so). The small water stain on WoM didn't bother me too much - I'm not super fussy on condition - as long as there is no rips or writing, or more than light wear, I'll be happy.



I did have moments of misgiving when I saw the discussion that at $265 it was overpriced, and almost decided to give it away. But knowing that Lofenloc's bid was at his maximum and a couple of dollars more would snag it was too much temptation for me. No regrets though, I'm satisfied with the price.



Plus as you say, I've been after a copy for years and I was in the same boat as Brian - money burning a hole in my pocket which I had to get rid of, after missing the Archaic.



NB, did you see the Nomad Gods that went through a couple of hours ago? 113 pounds, for a copy in very good condition (complete, no wear and half-punched).

Not feeling very good about the WoM right now. Still will gladly pay $200.00 for one if anyone has an extra hanging around or one that they no longer have a use for.

bclarkie wrote:Not feeling very good about the WoM right now. Still will gladly pay $200.00 for one if anyone has an extra hanging around or one that they no longer have a use for.

*checks to make sure you're feeling OK; hoping that a nice BIN might appear on eBay soonish*



Yeah, is a choice between paying ~$75 over the odds (my reckoning, not Mike's) or waiting/hoping...

deimos3428 wrote:

harami2000 wrote:(I wonder how Deimos is going to "let off steam"... hrrr... )

Ah, I'm over it.  :wink:



I'll save the steam for US sellers that stubbornly refuse to ship to Canada. Those folk are truly demon-spawn.

What's worse are US sellers who don't want to ship to the US because I'm in Canada.  



My confirmed paypal address is in Canada and I can understand why he doesn't want to deal with the hassle of cross-border shipping and is only comfortable shipping to a confirmed paypal address.  However, my wife has a US paypal account with a confirmed US address and he doesn't want her to pay she didn't win the auction.  I can't think of any legitimate reason why the person who wins an auction has to be the person who pays for it, nor could I find any Ebay/Palpal rules, policies or guidelines that prohibit or discourage such a practice, but I'm waiting to see what his reasoning is.