Silliest auction price of 2004-2005 announced!
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Post Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2005 9:03 am 
 

harami2000 wrote:
killjoy32 wrote:


holy cow!! 8O 8O 8O 8O


Strange color that spiral-bound Chainmail has... wouldn't trust his camera. :?




And it is statements like this one:



Creep1962 the Lying Piece of Shit Seller wrote:"White Box Sets like the one included here sometimes sell for $300 and up alone !"




Are why creep1962 shows up in the Shady Dealers thread all the time.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 12:55 am 
 

bclarkie wrote:Here is another one. Dragon magazine Archive:



http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... RK:MEWA:IT



There is still more than 7 days to go. :roll:




    Geez.  I had no idea this item was such a treasure!



    But, people have bid the price way up on their own!


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:22 pm 
 

I knew that I was probably not going to win this, but come on, I bid $212.81 and I did not even make it halfway. :roll:



eBay.com Item Bid History


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:28 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:I knew that I was probably not going to win this, but come on, I bid $212.81 and I did not even make it halfway. :roll:



eBay.com Item Bid History




We must think alike, I had a snipe set for $212.12 and it didn't even get a chance to go off.   :?

  


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:42 pm 
 

Reindeergamez wrote:
bclarkie wrote:I knew that I was probably not going to win this, but come on, I bid $212.81 and I did not even make it halfway. :roll:



eBay.com Item Bid History




We must think alike, I had a snipe set for $212.12 and it didn't even get a chance to go off. :?




And here I was wondering if I was acting stupid for bidding over $200.00 on a book of 20 Character Record Sheets. I can say one thing for sure though, if I hit the feckin lottery tommorow for a 10 million dollars, I am not paying $450.00 for character record sheets.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:42 pm 
 

And I thought $277 would at least be competitive.... but a mint example, bought from the designer, is really worth a premium. I wouldn't pay that much for it ($449), but I can see why some people would.



Glad to see it went to another Acaeum member at least.



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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:45 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:And here I was wondering if I was acting stupid for bidding over $200.00 on a book of 16 Character Record Sheets.




I think $200 for that item would have been a bargain.....  :wink:

  


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:57 pm 
 

Why is $500 for the first ever character sheets less ridiculous than $2000 for a module? ;)

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:59 pm 
 

mdr003 wrote:And I thought $277 would at least be competitive.... but a mint example, bought from the designer, is really worth a premium. I wouldn't pay that much for it ($449), but I can see why some people would.



Glad to see it went to another Acaeum member at least.



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Mike




I don't know man.  I am not tracking these, not including Marlinth $10 BIN,  and outside of the last one a few months ago that went for just under $300.00, here are the recorded sales directly from the site:



Character Archaic: FN: $155 (7/04), VF: $150 (7/00), VF: $156 (2/03)



It seems like we keep having these auctions that set records, and I mean records by a lot.  I can understand an increase in value, especially for the rarer items but this seems to be a little more than that.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:03 pm 
 

GraysonAC wrote:Why is $500 for the first ever character sheets less ridiculous than $2000 for a module? ;)




There seems to be a growing sense by many folks that $2000.00 for that particular module is ridiculous. Even if you take it at face value, comparing an adventure and Character Record Sheets, there isn't even a comparison. Any schmuck can take a piece of tablet paper and make a character record sheet that is worthwhile, not everyone can do that with an adventure. Christ, you can train a friggin monkey to make a character record sheet. Just my $.02.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:05 pm 
 

Reindeergamez wrote:
bclarkie wrote:I knew that I was probably not going to win this, but come on, I bid $212.81 and I did not even make it halfway. :roll:



eBay.com Item Bid History




We must think alike, I had a snipe set for $212.12 and it didn't even get a chance to go off.  :?




I went in at $250 and it didn't even show up on the bid list. Time to reconsider what I really need in my collection.


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:09 pm 
 

bbarsh wrote:
Reindeergamez wrote:


We must think alike, I had a snipe set for $212.12 and it didn't even get a chance to go off. :?




I went in at $250 and it didn't even show up on the bid list. Time to reconsider what I really need in my collection.




The worst part is that I can guarentee you that gygax came in at $444.44 with the sole expectation that no one was going to come anywhere within $100.00 of that bid.


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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:11 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:
GraysonAC wrote:Why is $500 for the first ever character sheets less ridiculous than $2000 for a module? ;)




There seems to be a growing sense by many folks that $2000.00 for that particular module is ridiculous. Even if you take it at face value, comparing an adventure and Character Record Sheets, there isn't even a comparison. Any schmuck can take a piece of tablet paper and make a character record sheet that is worthwhile, not everyone can do that with an adventure. Christ, you can train a friggin monkey to make a character record sheet. Just my $.02.




While I think there is truth in your line of thought. Character sheets were by their very nature designed to be disposed of. Therefore, I think there is value in certain character sheet packages. And I am not so sure that ST1 is worth $2,000 when you compare it to the tourny mods. Lets be somewhat realistic. There are only a relative handful of people who are ever going to see the value in the items we covet. It is not like collecting antique cars or artwork. We are but a very few and most likely not an enduring group. I have serious doubts as to whether todays D&D players - who have were in strollers when these things came out will have the same connectivity to keep prices in the 1,000s for some of these items.


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

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Post Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:15 pm 
 

I think auctions such as this one highlight the main problem with the valuation process - which is that the pool of items, and the pool of buyers, is simply not large enough to be statistically relevant.



I don't know much about statistics, but I would think that to plot a trend and estimate future trends, your sample size must be a certain size. For items like the character sheets, ST1, a bunch of others - the number in existance, and the number of people willing to bid, is just too small.



Look at today's auction - if either Gygax or A2jeff decided not to bid, the final price is $280 - a 40% drop. That's just one person missing the auction, or having his snipe missed because of a PC error. And now A2jeff has a copy, will it mean the next auction won't go to $449 - because one of the two people who got it to that level is no longer in the market?



Of course with so few items in existance, it's hard to set a standard. I was willing to bid more on this lot than I would have on another similar lot, just because it was coming from the original designer.



I don't know what the answer is. My opinion is that the current process used here at the Acaeum is the best possible under the circumstances - it records sale prices for all rare and semi-rare items, and is a good indication on what you could expect the item to fetch in the future. But don't be surprised by wild fluctuations because of the pool size.



Anyhow. I rarely look at the price index at the Acaeum before deciding what to bid (I rarely bid on the rares anyway so its somewhat of a moot point). I decide whats its worth to me, and bid accordingly.



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Post Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:26 am 
 

mdr003 wrote:Look at today's auction - if either Gygax or A2jeff decided not to bid, the final price is $280 - a 40% drop.




hmmm ... my snipe at $350 didn't even register.  :evil:



I must be getting old .. I am no longer setting high bids  :lol:

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Post Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:28 am 
 

GraysonAC wrote:Why is $500 for the first ever character sheets less ridiculous than $2000 for a module? ;)

You make a fine point there.  Both are quite ridiculous and one does not excuse the other.

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Post Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:36 am 
 

mdr003 wrote:I don't know much about statistics, but I would think that to plot a trend and estimate future trends, your sample size must be a certain size. For items like the character sheets, ST1, a bunch of others - the number in existance, and the number of people willing to bid, is just too small.

Certainly, more data points help create a more accurate model.  However, the valuations do not plot a trend or estimate future trends, you'll need to do that homework yourself.  All they do is provide a frame of reference from previously recorded data, they do not predict the future or even the present.
Look at today's auction - if either Gygax or A2jeff decided not to bid, the final price is $280 - a 40% drop. That's just one person missing the auction, or having his snipe missed because of a PC error. And now A2jeff has a copy, will it mean the next auction won't go to $449 - because one of the two people who got it to that level is no longer in the market?

Sadly, no.  You can't predict the next auction accurately based on one previous one (or even ten).  Some of the people that didn't win will be "revved up" now, and a few will be discouraged and not try.  Flip a coin.

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Post Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 9:44 am 
 

improvstone wrote:
mdr003 wrote:Look at today's auction - if either Gygax or A2jeff decided not to bid, the final price is $280 - a 40% drop.




hmmm ... my snipe at $350 didn't even register. :evil:



I must be getting old .. I am no longer setting high bids :lol:




That is always something to keep in mind . . . sometimes auctions seem like just two bidders pushed the price up too high.  However, even if a2jeff hadn't bid, then improvstone's snipe would have pushed it to $355.  However many other snipes didn't register on the bid list because they were under the minimum bid when the time came?


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