Something else occured that makes me lean toward the generational thing: Back in the early 80s there was a backlask against D&D by the Christian right.

I don't know how much impact it had in other parts of the country, but here in the south it was fairly profound.

There were extreme cases -- groups burning D&D books -- and other, less drastic episodes that I remember vividly.  I had friends at school who simply quit playing the game, and knew of parents who wouldn't allow their kids to play the game.

These incidents may have taken a number of copies of OD&D and 1E material out of circulation, and had an impact on the availability of material now.

Just a thought ...
Keith

red_bus wrote:Good thoughts all round.

I think that one factor which will affect all this is whether people will continue (or re-start) to game into their retirement.  If these pastimes are completely forgotten by then, then over time the collectible market will decline (although I think that there will always probably be a market for some of the older iconic stuff, e.g. Dragon Mag. #1 etc.. albeit a small one).  On the other hand, if people use their increased leisure in retirement to game (or start gaming again), then I think that the collecting market will stay very strong.

Picking up on this comment. I watched a documentary on the evolution of the toy market in Japan. Because of declining birth rates in wealthy countries, the toy / game market in general has declined. In Japan, companies started producing toys and games for retirees. It is the largest growing market in Japan - really booming apparently. People are living longer and have a lot of time on their hands. In the past people in retirement homes twiddled their thumbs, watched TV and did crosswords. In Japan, retirement home residents are buying games specifically designed for older people, including computer games. Perhaps, in the distant future us collectors will actually be able to 'play' our games rather than just collect them!