The Rares...Recent Auction Prices & Discussion
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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:28 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:   What did the last Tso go for??? Interested in comparing if the price went up or down, or if the mispelling affected the final price.


Lumber's last Tsojconth (August 2005, I think) went for $1825.  Here are the bids:

10
105
617.69
638.92
666.67
688.87
723.41
888.88
900
925.71
945.71
951
1226.65
1375.86
1576.45
1750
1800
1825

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:11 pm 
 

Well, I must say that I completely missed that one. 8O IIRC the last one Howard<lumberjaques> sold went for $1825 whenever a2jeff pushed up on that bidder who came out of nowhere and hasnt been seen or heard from since.


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:50 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:Well, I must say that I completely missed that one. 8O IIRC the last one Howard<lumberjaques> sold went for $1825 whenever a2jeff pushed up on that bidder who came out of nowhere and hasnt been seen or heard from since.


Was that not lumberjacques again? Auction dated 30th August 2005 with "Tsojonth" spelling. Have the full details somewhere...

Yeah, rampant "must have" bidding, IIRC.



The more recent one; "NM, but for that single short split" ($919, not $911 actually) was 30th September 2005;

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 8700187134



And the $500 (/$525) off-eBay sale was December 2005.

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:57 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:
bclarkie wrote:Well, I must say that I completely missed that one. 8O IIRC the last one Howard<lumberjaques> sold went for $1825 whenever a2jeff pushed up on that bidder who came out of nowhere and hasnt been seen or heard from since.

Was that not lumberjacques again? Auction dated 30th August 2005 with "Tsojonth" spelling. Have the full details somewhere...
Yeah, rampant "must have" bidding, IIRC.

The more recent one; "NM, but for that single short split" ($919, not $911 actually) was 30th September 2005;
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 8700187134

And the $500 (/$525) off-eBay sale was December 2005.




I find it rather interesting though that the last 2 from lumberjaques have gone to bidders with low feedback that no one seems to know. :? I do think that you are correct about the spelling error too. :)



Sadly, <edited for your protection>  :)


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:58 pm 
 

Another Fazzlewood:



http://cgi.ebay.com/Quest-For-the-Fazzl ... dZViewItem



The BIN is "only" for $1649.  



And apparantly there are more copies to come, if the letter is true. And how about this:



The current value of this module is unknown because it is so rare that none have been know to have been sold since 1996.




Shoddy research, outright lie or what?  They just sold one not too long ago.



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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:01 pm 
 

[nm]

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:03 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:
bclarkie wrote:Sadly, unless something changed dramatically...

I know that, but I don't think that was requested to be advertised for obvious reasons!


Would this be a good time for an edit? :)


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:05 pm 
 

[nm]

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:11 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:
bclarkie wrote:
harami2000 wrote:
bclarkie wrote:Sadly, unless something changed dramatically...

I know that, but I don't think that was requested to be advertised for obvious reasons!

Would this be a good time for an edit? :)

Perhaps so, Brian. Some people prefer other high-rolling bidders not to know such things! ;)

Well it is now edited for your protection. :wink:  :lol:


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:16 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:Well it is now edited for your protection. :wink: :lol:

Heh, heh... Is only courteous, IMO. Thanks :)
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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 8:21 pm 
 

bclarkie wrote:I find it rather interesting though that the last 2 from lumberjaques have gone to bidders with low feedback that no one seems to know. :? I do think that you are correct about the spelling error too. :)

Sadly, <edited for your protection> :)

Honestly, a lot of these rare auctions are making me paranoid.  The prices keep skyrocketing, they all claim to be mint, and they're coming in pairs.  I'm not going to tell anyone what to bid/not bid on, here's a few observations.

It seems slightly fishy that someone who worked on Tsojconth would spell it incorrectly, and repeatedly so.  And that someone that knew what it was worth would provide such poor scans.  :?  (Didn't stop me from bidding, though.)

And multiple Fazzlewoods just seems really unlikely, authenticity letter or not.  In fact, the authenticity letter almost backfires, in my opinion.  :?

Anyone else concerned?

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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:04 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Honestly, a lot of these rare auctions are making me paranoid...  It seems slightly fishy that someone who worked on Tsojconth would spell it incorrectly, and repeatedly so. And that someone that knew what it was worth would provide such poor scans. :? (Didn't stop me from bidding, though.)


I was hoping to possibly make this auction one of my first real pushes for a type 5 rare, but I smelled the fishiness too, and it *did* keep me from bidding.  

This module is very small.  So, why not post scans of all the pages?  I have seen this done for other rares auctions, and it certainly goes a long way to waylaying fears and adding greater legitimacy to the proceedings.

I am not claiming that the module lumberjacques sold was not authentic, only that more thoughtfully considered auction information could have gotten more bidders into the action.  

bonk!

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:12 pm 
 

I'd have to see it under a microscope.  The December Fazzle sold by lumberjacques passed the test administered by the member who bought it.  Based on comparisons made within my own collection, I can confirm that the microscope works for LCOT, GT, and LT as well.

As for the sudden spike in near mint rares, I personally doubt the oft-repeated scenario that unsolds were destroyed.

  


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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:16 pm 
 

tfm wrote:As for the sudden spike in near mint rares, I personally doubt the oft-repeated scenario that unsolds were destroyed.

*agrees*. Seems pretty much the case time-and-time again.
Why destroy what you've paid to have printed? Especially for smaller press material (often paid for out of one's own pocket).

  

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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:18 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:Why destroy what you've paid to have printed?


In TSR's case it was a plugged pipeline.

There were thousands of copies of old material on the shelves of retailers who got their D&D materials via Random House. They refused to buy the new stuff until the old stuff sold... and it wasn't moving.

The solution was a massive Returns program that allowed all the stores to return their unsolds for credit. (Dunno how much of the original wholesale that came to, but it was a sizeable percentage.)

And presto, tens of thousands of old pieces came off the shelves and even more new stuff went out onto the shelves. We had many semi-loads rolling up to the TSR warehouse.

At that point, tho, it was storage costs vs writeoffs for dumping 'em... and the tax incentives won out.

  

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Post Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:46 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Honestly, a lot of these rare auctions are making me paranoid. The prices keep skyrocketing, they all claim to be mint, and they're coming in pairs. I'm not going to tell anyone what to bid/not bid on, here's a few observations.

It seems slightly fishy that someone who worked on Tsojconth would spell it incorrectly, and repeatedly so. And that someone that knew what it was worth would provide such poor scans. :? (Didn't stop me from bidding, though.)

And multiple Fazzlewoods just seems really unlikely, authenticity letter or not. In fact, the authenticity letter almost backfires, in my opinion. :?

Anyone else concerned?


Great paranoid minds think alike.  I was contemplating along similar lines just this afternoon.    From my looks at Fazzlewood, it looks ridiculously easy to copy/counterfeit.  At the very least, even if everything is on the up and up, I'd start to get concerned about how many of these and other "rares" are REALLY out there.  The scenario of someone somewhere (or multiple someones) sitting on a box of these looms it's ugly head.  At the worst, well, these aren't that hard to professionally run copies of at a Kinkos or printing shop.  This is why I also don't collect tourneys either...they have such an amateurish appearance that one could always "find" a box or two of these, sell them, and with virtually nothing to compare them to none could be the wiser if they happen to be copies.

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Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:46 am 
 

Two copies of Character Archaic, same seller, spelled wrong:



http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... %3AIT&rd=1



http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... %3AIT&rd=1

Maybe it's spelled that way on cover? Hard to believe someone can make that mistake twice...



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Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 3:13 am 
 

Badmike wrote:Two copies of Character Archaic, same seller, spelled wrong:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... %3AIT&rd=1

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... %3AIT&rd=1
Maybe it's spelled that way on cover? Hard to believe someone can make that mistake twice...

Mike B.




It is hard to read and I could see how someone who had no idea what it was for could make that mistake. The one I bought last year had the same misspelling and a very low BIN. I just find it strange that someone with such an extensive collection of midrange items would not recognize this for what it is and spell it correctly...and then too have two.


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Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 10:17 am 
 

ExTSR wrote:
harami2000 wrote:Why destroy what you've paid to have printed?


In TSR's case it was a plugged pipeline.

There were thousands of copies of old material on the shelves of retailers who got their D&D materials via Random House. They refused to buy the new stuff until the old stuff sold... and it wasn't moving.

The solution was a massive Returns program that allowed all the stores to return their unsolds for credit. (Dunno how much of the original wholesale that came to, but it was a sizeable percentage.)

And presto, tens of thousands of old pieces came off the shelves and even more new stuff went out onto the shelves. We had many semi-loads rolling up to the TSR warehouse.

At that point, tho, it was storage costs vs writeoffs for dumping 'em... and the tax incentives won out.


I would agree with this statement.  Almost all of the items TSR sold didn't have a lot of collectible value initially, as is the case with most items when they are first produced.  They were used play the game!  Even items such as the anniversary or collectible sets usually didn't sell out.  Some of the remaining items will fall through the cracks and remain in a hobby or book store stock for whatever reason.  Maybe the retailer was not too good at turning over their stock or went out of business.  There could be many reasons.  Bottom line, any retailer that stayed in business had to get rid of old stock that wasn't selling to remain in business.

So, chances are, there isn't going to be some massive dump of excess copies of rares occurring on the market.  These items are rare because they were produced in limited quantities.  A lot of them were used in tournaments and never distributed outside of these tournaments.  Even if they were there was still a limited quantity produced.  In a lot of the cases that we have seen of rares coming up, if there were multiple copies, they were buried/lost stock at a store or from individuals that participated in the creation of the item in some manner.  One would expect that the originator of the item would have a few copies.  With respect to any one store having a box of them lying around, they are not going to have a huge amount of these rares stockpiled because they didn't exist in huge quantities to begin with.  Even if they had a substantial quantity, it would probably only reduce the value slightly over the long haul.  Case in point; Tsojconth -- A few years back there was a lot of twelve NM originals found in a hobby store.  They didn't appear to cause the market to collapse.  Matters of fact, the latest sale prices for it are pretty amazing!

On the subject of counterfeiting, I think paranoia is running rampant...  Counterfeiting is very high risk on items that are few in number, since they are scrutinized so closely and the potential for profit would be very limited before it was noticed.

There are many way to determine whether an item is counterfeit or original.  One of the best ways is simply visual inspection, or better yet, a microscope, since the original printing/duplication process and inks/toners used are almost as unique for every item produced as you or I.  Modern inks and toners don't "bleed" like the old ones did.  Think of the ink/toner as a fingerprint.  Pretty darn hard to reproduce.  Especially to make a few bucks?  In addition, paper quality has improved/changed over time.  

Some other ways to determine if an item is authentic:

1. Provenance - If it comes from the creator of the item it's probably authentic...  Otherwise who do you trust!
2. Chemical testing - A bit elaborate and expensive but it can be done.  You also have to have access to another original's chemical analysis results.
3. Manufacturing and assembly methods, components used, and packaging - Fold patterns, staple type and crimping method, paper thickness and texture, shear/cut marks and patterns on paper edges.
4. Plain old common sense - If it seems suspicious, buyer beware!

  

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Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:50 pm 
 

I find it amusing that the Fazzle with the BIN would probably sell for at least that much at normal auction, but with such a huge BIN up there, no one bites.


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