deimos3428 wrote:Moreso than other commodities, collectibles are valuable because they are rare. When supply is unable to adequately meet demand, like any market, the value of the commodity rises. Interestingly, in collectible markets, items are in demand simply because they are rare, which is a sort of economic double-whammy. Oranges, unlike orange B3s, do not increase in demand simply because there are less of them.

That's why I don't like PDFs -- they allow originals to survive unscathed, which does affect the market. If the OB3 PDFs existed when OB3 was printed, there would a noticable effect in the value of the OB3.

*I did date an economics major once, so I know what I'm talking about.

     But since PDFs didn't exist until a relatively short time ago, it should have no effect on the collectible market, since everyone who WANTED to open up and use an Orange B3 has probably already done so.   I have a hard time, ok make that an impossible time, believing that less people are using their Orange B3's now that it is available on PDF. I don't think anyone ever used them anyway.  As a matter of fact, with what Orange B3's are going for now, you could make the argument that the PDF has increased the price by making it more well known to the collecting public and creating even MORE of a demand than there already was.  
    Interestingly, there is also an arguement to be made that the LESS available something is the LESS valuable it is....vis a vis if it's so rare no one has ever heard of it or knows anyone that owns one, then there is no demand, ergo something with say a print run of 2000 could be worth more than something with a print run of 100 in certain circumstances.
   It's an interesting discussion.  My opinion is that PDFs have an absolute negligible effect on the collectibles market, if that even.  Case in point, I don't see prices going down for any of the Rares now available on PDF....

Mike B.

I can see everyone's point on all aspects of PDFs.

I personally place no monetary value on them - I just don't want to ruin something I've paid a premium price for (I'm kinda rough on stuff), so I like to have a backup on hand.

dathon wrote:
In other words, the reason these items are worth so much is because they are very, very rare. If you enable the masses to obtain cheaply any of these rares, even in a non-ideal format such as a PDF, then the originals will potentially decrease in value... especially for rares whose physicality wasn't too special besides being flimsy sheets of paper anyway (Tsojconth, Fazzlewood, Tamoachan, etc.). The reason why woodgrain boxes retain their value even though the book contents can be had much cheaper in a white box, is precisely because that woodgrain box cannot be put in a satisfactory PDF format. A PDF box just isn't the same... ditto for PotVQ's black folder.

    This makes sense, that's why Amazing Spiderman #1 is virtually worthess, as all the reprints that have been made have gotten the story to the masses so much no one really wants the original (Those damn Marvel Masterpiece editions!!!)  :)
    Obviously, this isn't always true.  Sometimes people will buy the original JUST for the collectible value, who cares about the actual content.  People weren't paying hundreds of dollars to READ Orange B3s, they were paying hundreds of dollars because the item was an instant collectible, the bulk of them pulped within days of being printed. People aren't paying premium prices to buy, say, RPGA1 (last two sales were $810 and $500, I think) and actually read or play it.  They are paying that much because it's a collectible due to low print runs.  
   Does anyone really believe the value or price of an Orange B3 has gone DOWN since the PDF was released?  I think it's pretty obvious the prices being paid now are blowing the pre-1998 prices out of the water.
   Your first statement is true....the reason these items are worth a lot is that they are very, very rare. Unfortunately you should have stopped there. True collectibles, whether they are Amazing Spiderman #1 or an Orange B3, will retain their value if reprinted in a non ideal format. Look at it this way, the Marvel Masterpiece Edition of Spiderman #1-#20 actually looks BETTER than the orignal due to the paper used and color process, and it hasn't affected the price of the original one bit.  The pdf of an Orange B3 isn't even that great quality, and I haven't seen any evidence yet it's hurt the prices.  I would be intrigued to see evidence that people are willing to spend less on a SW Orange B3 now than what they sold for 10 years ago merely because of the presence of the pdf.
    Reproductions very rarely hurt the value of true collectible items.  There is always that segment of the collectors that wants the original no matter what, and this is the sort of person who overpays for collectibles anyway. Let's face it, someone mildly curious of the "banned" artwork in an Orange B3 wasn't going to drop $1000 just to satisfy his curiousity.  However, collectors have always recognized it's value.  Ditto on stuff like Fazzlewood.....you mean to tell me a rabid collector isn't going to bid $2000 on a SW Fazzlewood because suddenly there's a pdf out there?   It wouldn't affect the final price at all. The person buying a New XMen #94 isn't buying it to read it, he's already read it numerous times in reprints, he wants it because he wants IT!, not the reprint.

Mike B.

Another interesting point....I was able to obtain a pdf of The Jade Hare many years before it was commercially available.  Someone I dealt with on the old frp.marketplace boards had scanned it into his computer, and would email it to anyone who was interested. I still have his copy, as a matter of fact.
  Isn't it really only a matter of time before someone finally scans in one of the real rares and starts distributing it?  Should be some interesting shockwaves in the RPG collecting world when, say, a tournament Ghost Tower or Dwarven Glory starts making the rounds via email.....

Mike B.

Your point about what ifs is well taken in regards to the mythical person who might now want an original copy of OB3 because of the pdf. However, that being said, I have seen a lot more evidence of people in my experience that are now less likely to bid on/buy an item becuase they have the pdf, then the otehr way around. One only needs to visit www.dragonsfoot.org to see what I mean.  I have been browsing that forum for about a month now, and I can tell you thatI have seen at least 30 different people there to make reference to the fact that they would just assume have a pdf than a original.   Don't get me wrong that site is actually very cool, but it is without a doubt a gamers site. Most of the folks over there are much more interested in getting the material as cheply as possible and they could care less as to what format that it comes in.  I have yet to see someone who says that because of the pdf that they have, they are now on the lookout for the original.   Now if those 30 different people might have bought a used module out of your store instead of going to rpgnow, that to me is hurting the value of the original items.  Just my $.02.

bclarkie wrote:Your point about what ifs is well taken in regards to the mythical person who might now want an original copy of OB3 because of the pdf. However, that being said, I have seen a lot more evidence of people in my experience that are now less likely to bid on/buy an item becuase they have the pdf, then the otehr way around. One only needs to visit www.dragonsfoot.org to see what I mean. I have been browsing that forum for about a month now, and I can tell you thatI have seen at least 30 different people there to make reference to the fact that they would just assume have a pdf than a original.  Don't get me wrong that site is actually very cool, but it is without a doubt a gamers site. Most of the folks over there are much more interested in getting the material as cheply as possible and they could care less as to what format that it comes in. I have yet to see someone who says that because of the pdf that they have, they are now on the lookout for the original.  Now if those 30 different people might have bought a used module out of your store instead of going to rpgnow, that to me is hurting the value of the original items. Just my $.02.

Good points. But think about it, none of those guys who want a orange b3 as cheaply as possible were ever going to bid on one anyway.  Their curiousity would have taken a backseat to their cheapness. Look at Dathon, he said he spent $1200 just to take a look at a ST1. Dathon is a true collector though. Would one of those cheapos ever bid $100, much less $1200, to check out an ST1?  Not likely.  Collectors that always have to have just that certain item are always out there...don't confuse them with the cheapskate dabbler who will think he's busting his entire nut bidding $101 for a RPGA1.  You have to remember we here on the Acaeum are the cream of the crop collector wise, you can't compare us to any of the casual lookie loos elsewhere.  :D
  I remember back in the day there was a very lively underground of photocopied modules.  I actually remember attending gaming conventions into the 80's where people SOLD photocopied 1st edition modules.  I  always thought that was dumb though since IMO they were easy to come by, who would want a crappy copy over the real thing.  The dumbest thing I ever saw was a guy that photocopied his entire Dragon mag each month so he could bringthe articles to games without damaging the mags. It must have cost him like 5 bucks to copy the mag every month. These are the same mags that now 20 years later sell for a whopping 5-6 bucks each brand new  Oh well, who could know.

Mike B.

dathon wrote:There's a reason why Rolex, Coach, Polo, etc. go after those who make the cheap knockoffs; some of the people who buy them would have bought the original if they had no other choice.

Well, most of the people who buy these sorts of knock-offs are either cheap, total wannabees, looking to impress someone, or the sort of person who is always out to "beat the system" (or some combination of all four). This sort of person is not in the market for a $5,000 watch, and never will be. Given the "choice" of spending $5,000 on a watch or spending $0 and not getting a watch, this person will always choose the second option.

dathon wrote:As bclarkie alluded to, just because the price of OB3s has gone up since 1998 does not mean it would have gone up even further if there were no PDFs available

We're back to pure speculation here. This argument is impossible to prove one way or the other.

+++++

If we look at actual evidence, it seems pretty clear that the PDF revolution has had very little effect on sales of D&D collectibles. The orange B3 is the absolute perfect example: despite having been a FREE download for a period of years, sales of the actual, physical module tend to be very strong. How can this be so? Well, to steal a line from Porsche: "there is no substitute." By which I mean that for many, many collectors out there, there is no substitute for owning the actual item.

And this goes way beyond the rares, too. Boxed sets, super-modules, accessory items (Rogues Gallery, for example), hardcover rulebooks, ODD booklets: all of these are available either for free or for $4.99 or less at various download sites. Yet sales of physical items remain strong across all categories — just ask anyone who tracks eBay data or uses data-mining software.

Now, I'm not totally naive: I do believe that, from the time legitimate PDFs became easy to find and download, some D&D sales have probably been either lost or diminished (again, though, I'd like to see some evidence of this). However, I have a question for anyone who thinks the PDF factor has had a major impact on sales of D&D collectibles: if pure speculation and "hypothetical people" don't count, where is your evidence?

Xaxaxe wrote:

dathon wrote:There's a reason why Rolex, Coach, Polo, etc. go after those who make the cheap knockoffs; some of the people who buy them would have bought the original if they had no other choice.

Strongly disagree — the people who buy these sorts of knock-offs are either cheap, total wannabees, looking to impress someone, or the sort of person who is always out to "beat the system" (or some combination of all four). This sort of person is not in the market for a $5,000 watch, and never will be. Given the "choice" of spending $5,000 on a watch or spending $0 and not getting a watch, this person will always choose the second option.

dathon wrote:As bclarkie alluded to, just because the price of OB3s has gone up since 1998 does not mean it would have gone up even further if there were no PDFs available

We're back to pure speculation here. This argument is impossible to prove one way or the other.

+++++

If we look at actual evidence, it seems pretty clear that the PDF revolution has had very little effect on sales of D&D collectibles. The orange B3 is the absolute perfect example: despite having been a FREE download for a period of years, sales of the actual, physical module tend to be very strong. How can this be so? Well, to steal a line from Porsche: "there is no substitute." By which I mean that for many, many collectors out there, there is no substitute for owning the actual item.

And this goes way beyound the rares, too. Boxed sets, super-modules, accessory items (Rogues Gallery, for example), hardcover rulebooks, ODD booklets: all of these are available either for free or for $4.99 or less at various download sites. Yet sales of physical items remain strong across all categories — just ask anyone who tracks eBay data or uses data-mining software.

Now, I'm not totally naive: I do believe that, over time, some D&D sales have probably been either lost or diminished by the PDF phenomenon (again, though, I'd like to see some evidence of this). However, I have a question for anyone who thinks the PDF factor has had a major impact on sales of D&D collectibles: if pure speculation and "hypothetical people" don't count, where is your evidence?

    I agree with everything you wrote, good post, sometimes I know what I want to say but someone else says it for me, bravo.  :D
    I will give the opposition one bone.  I think the emergence of Pdfs MAY have driven down the price of common modules...stuff like the A-series, S Series, etc.  I know the prices have gone way down in recent years.  However, this could possibly be attributed to the amount of people auctioning the commons on Ebay and no other reason.  These aren't exactly the type of modules anyone saves up for to buy, and there are quite a few of them out there.
    I just don't see the pdf market hurting the collectible market, maybe the commons, but not the rares.

Mike B.

One other thing about the pdfs and their effect on prices. In regards to the rares there really isnt a whole lot of them out there on pdf, the only exceptions being OB3, the Rs and the RPGAs.  Nothing else is available out there.  It seems that most rares though, particularly over the last year or so have seen a increase in pricing, although looking at OB3 thinking back pretty hard over the last several years, the price actually has remain pretty stagnant. Now, I am not saying this is for sure a direct result of it being readily available on pdf, but you cant rules this out as a cuase.