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Post Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2005 9:39 pm 
 

New site update, June 5th.

Before the screaming starts: there's a few notable absences from this update, particularly the new PotVQ sequence, the elimination of the Fourth print of the Original D&D Set, and the valuations for the Dungeon Masters Guide.  All will be coming shortly.

Hopefully, this update addresses a lot of the inconsistencies (for lack of a better word) introduced with the last update.  I'm sure there's still some problems -- please let me know here, or via e-mail, any that you find.

Foul

  


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Post Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2005 10:07 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote:Hopefully, this update addresses a lot of the inconsistencies (for lack of a better word)

Well, that's a good enough word, phps.

Will take a look later, but am sure it will be a "better match" to the realities of the marketplace.

aside: How about some rounding of the figures, though?
e.g. ST1
       $405         $911         $1215         $1519         $1823         $2025

That does look kinda amateurish, IMO.

Thanks for the work, y'all. :)

==

Oops, sorry: I started reading... :oops:

Note, aside. Has any 1st G, DG & H ever sold for that much?

Note 2. Does anyone actually have a 1st (non-T) GK Greyhawk? I asked before and no-one could confirm...
(If they do exist, they're rarer than the T1st, judging by eBay).

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:36 am 
 

harami2000 wrote:aside: How about some rounding of the figures, though?
e.g. ST1
       $405         $911         $1215         $1519         $1823         $2025

That does look kinda amateurish, IMO.


FWIW, I like the exact figures, since they match up with what sellers could research on eBay or here in discussions via google.

I won't have time to look at the updates until next weekend, I imagine....


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:12 am 
 

The short answer on the lack of "smoothed" figures: I couldn't (easily) get Excel to do it for me.  Doing it by hand is extremely time-consuming, and also leads to errors.

While it doesn't look as "pat" as smoothed numbers, perhaps, it *is* more accurate.

Foul

  

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:16 am 
 

harami2000 wrote:Note, aside. Has any 1st G, DG & H ever sold for that much?

Eh... help me out here.  What are we talking about?

harami2000 wrote:Note 2. Does anyone actually have a 1st (non-T) GK Greyhawk? I asked before and no-one could confirm...
(If they do exist, they're rarer than the T1st, judging by eBay).

They do exist.  They're about as rare as other comparable 1st-print booklets (Eldritch, etc).  If I recall, I saw one go by on eBay about two/three weeks ago?  Don't quote me on that, but I'm fairly sure I saw it.

Foul

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 4:14 am 
 

FoulFoot wrote:
harami2000 wrote:Note, aside. Has any 1st G, DG & H ever sold for that much?

Eh... help me out here. What are we talking about?

Gods, Demi-Gods & Heroes.
The new price is $140 for NM. Don't recall seeing a price like that, far less the $150-200 copies there would have had to have been to "average out" at $140.
(The most recent copy I purchased as a single item was $29 in VF/NM (8/05))

I still can't get clear in my head what some of those "estimated values" are, since in the case of the OD&D supplements they are clearly not eBay prices: $140 for a 1st G,DG&H vs. $150 for a T1st Greyhawk... don't think so.

FoulFoot wrote:
harami2000 wrote:Note 2. Does anyone actually have a 1st (non-T) GK Greyhawk? I asked before and no-one could confirm...
(If they do exist, they're rarer than the T1st, judging by eBay).

They do exist. They're about as rare as other comparable 1st-print booklets (Eldritch, etc). If I recall, I saw one go by on eBay about two/three weeks ago? Don't quote me on that, but I'm fairly sure I saw it.

Good spot. Was <toymom>'s ropey-looking copy.
The auction stated "first printing" and it was a GK, but the title page clearly has "SECOND PRINTING". :)
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5199440571

It's entirely possible there's a GK(non-T)1st, but at present there is only one person listed as a reference source and no-one with a sure copy (c/w the two sources noted for the (old) 4th print OD&D set).

In the last year or so I've seen ~4 T1sts, zero non-T 1sts and ~4 GK 2nds.

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 4:37 am 
 

FoulFoot wrote:The short answer on the lack of "smoothed" figures: I couldn't (easily) get Excel to do it for me.

Never could manage that at all. It doesn't know the meaning of "significant figures" and is not even possible to use a custom format with a mask for 1, 2, 3 or 4 digit figures because "0" and "#" are not treated as single digits, but "any" number.
Would probably have to convert to a string and manipulate that, no?
(Is silly...).

FoulFoot wrote:While it doesn't look as "pat" as smoothed numbers, perhaps, it *is* more accurate.

More precise, phps, but creates a false impression of accuracy which is potentially very misleading, especially for the "casual" user.

1) There is no agreement on grading, far less to that degree of precision, and for rare items the price jumps are very large compared with the stated single-dollar resolution.
2) It further reinforces the idea of a supply that doesn't exist in many cases, it is claimed that these figures are based on eBay results (.
3) Random variation from one auction to the next is considerable. In that context, trying to pin down the $ estimated value of a rarer item to the nearest dollar is futile.

====

p.s. Dragon Dice... heh, yes I saw that one, earlier this year.
Wasn't listed. Peripheral interest. Didn't bid. :roll:
Sold for $12 NM and is now listed at $40... :?:

p2.s. First Quest Vinyl. Down to a "4". At last! Thanks.

p3.s. Note on early 3rd print Chainmail scarcity. Thumbs-up on that, too.

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 8:26 am 
 

harami2000 wrote:
FoulFoot wrote:Eh... help me out here. What are we talking about?

Gods, Demi-Gods & Heroes.
The new price is $140 for NM. Don't recall seeing a price like that, far less the $150-200 copies there would have had to have been to "average out" at $140.
(The most recent copy I purchased as a single item was $29 in VF/NM (8/05))

I still can't get clear in my head what some of those "estimated values" are, since in the case of the OD&D supplements they are clearly not eBay prices: $140 for a 1st G,DG&H vs. $150 for a T1st Greyhawk... don't think so.

Obviously, we don't receive every item in every possible condition all that often.  (I personally don't recall seeing a NM G,DG&H at all).  What information we don't have, we have to interpolate/extrapolate from what we know for sure.  The more real data we acquire, the more accurate a model can be built.  

$140 for a NM 1st G,DG&H doesn't seem that far off to me given that a FN copy went for $104, and that was in 1999.  

Another possibility is that there is some "stale" data in there, and the FN copy is artificially inflating the model.  But with OCEs regularly trading at $120-200 these days...  :roll:  Perhaps it's the T1st Greyhawk values that are low.

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 9:46 am 
 

FoulFoot wrote:New site update, June 5th.

Before the screaming starts: there's a few notable absences from this update, particularly the new PotVQ sequence, the elimination of the Fourth print of the Original D&D Set, and the valuations for the Dungeon Masters Guide. All will be coming shortly.

Hopefully, this update addresses a lot of the inconsistencies (for lack of a better word) introduced with the last update. I'm sure there's still some problems -- please let me know here, or via e-mail, any that you find.

Foul


My site view hasn't updated on the prices...what am I doing wrong?  It doesn't show any of the new pricing updates. The other updates noted are visible, just not anything from the Index.

Has anyone noticed these variances with the D1 description?  If so the D1 section needs to be updated:

Second (Dec 1978):  Monochrome.  Wizard logo is offset from a starburst stating "Official D&D Tournament Module used at GenCon XI".  No ISBN.  Bottom of front cover states "2nd Printing, December 1978".  Some illustration that were present in the First print are now missing: the giant slug on pg 3, the pack lizard and drow on pg 5, the mind flayer on pg 7, the bugbears on pg 10, and the jermlaine on pg 12!  (Thanks to Michael Deaton for this info).

This isn't so...the illustrations are present in the 2nd printings...on all 3 of mine they are....Also, 2nd printing copies have prices of items on the back cover...I suppose someone could have swapped out the booklets at one time, but on ALL three of my copies?  That seems odd.

Fourth (1980):  Monochrome.  Wizard logo with starburst.  ISBN is on back cover bottom right.  No printing notice. (Two copies have been reported with the ISBN on the back cover bottom left instead; unknown which version came first). (Thanks to Michael Deaton, John Kozol, and Adrian Newman for this info).

Both my 4th print copies have the ISBN on the back cover bottom left, so it can't be that rare.....


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:06 pm 
 

"p.s. Dragon Dice... heh, yes I saw that one, earlier this year.
Wasn't listed. Peripheral interest. Didn't bid. :roll:
Sold for $12 NM and is now listed at $40... :?:"

Nice to see the Dragon Dice on here now...the regular set (six dice) was the first set of dice I ever bought (strangely, at the Capitol Children's Museum in Washington, D.C.) Same yellow packaging as shown in the scan, except that my dice were pale blue. I still have them. I assume there are other color variations.

About a year ago I noticed that one seller was selling a set every week of each type (regular and Percentile). The price varied, but the weekly sales probably depressed the price for a while.

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:52 pm 
 

Thanks for the response, <deimos>.
deimos3428 wrote:$140 for a NM 1st G,DG&H doesn't seem that far off to me given that a FN copy went for $104, and that was in 1999.

Another possibility is that there is some "stale" data in there, and the FN copy is artificially inflating the model.

That one at least should've been dropped by the model; per Page Not Found
"1999 and earlier:  Weight 0 (disregarded due to lack of overall collector awareness at that time)"

deimos3428 wrote:(I personally don't recall seeing a NM G,DG&H at all).

Don't know what grades have been worked into the data, but perhaps $105 for a "Fine" copy would've been a better example. ;)
Knowing some of the lower prices achieved for copies of that supplement (for example), I certainly don't recall the higher ones which would be required to pull that "average" up to $105.

(Of course, discarding all lots where more than one supplement is sold, together, or with other items, doesn't help the volume of "useable" data, either).

deimos3428 wrote:But with OCEs regularly trading at $120-200 these days... :roll: Perhaps it's the T1st Greyhawk values that are low.

T1st Greyhawk vs. 1st G,DG&H is certainly puzzling, knowing the recent realisations for the former. They're not in the same "ballpark".

(aside: OCEs were selling at that price back in 1999- and before- too, btw ;)).

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:08 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:Knowing some of the lower prices achieved for copies of that supplement (for example), I certainly don't recall the higher ones which would be required to pull that "average" up to $105.

Well, (and correct me if I'm wrong guys, maybe I'm off here), my understanding of the mathematics behind the formula is as follows:

The current valuations for any item at a given point in time are a set of linked averages, ie. they are scalars of the true "average" which is aligned to the base condition.

If an item in any condition sold for more than that particular grade's current valuation, all the grade averages for that item would increase slightly, in step with the base condition average.  And the opposite would be true for items selling below current valuation.

So an expensive "F" might raise each of the scalar values, and a cheap "NM" might drop them all.  You wouldn't need an actual NM copy selling for >$140 to achieve that value, just a lot of lower condition copies selling for more than their previous valuation, the supposition being that if the value of one condition is increasing, all conditions are increasing in a similar fashion.  At least that's how I understand it.

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:44 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:You wouldn't need an actual NM copy selling for >$140 to achieve that value, just a lot of lower condition copies selling for more than their previous valuation, the supposition being that if the value of one condition is increasing, all conditions are increasing in a similar fashion. At least that's how I understand it.

Yup.
Personally, I still think it's impossible to use a linear calculation on those figures, but even then would only generate such a high estimated value ($105,F) if all 1st print copies of G,DG&H sold on eBay were being graded very harshly.
And if so, I can't then see how that estimate could be made to fit in with the T1st Greyhawk estimate ($113,F) or even the later G,DG&H prints ($25,F).

Something doesn't appear to compute there... :?

  

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:38 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:
FoulFoot wrote:New site update, June 5th.

Before the screaming starts: there's a few notable absences from this update, particularly the new PotVQ sequence, the elimination of the Fourth print of the Original D&D Set, and the valuations for the Dungeon Masters Guide. All will be coming shortly.

Hopefully, this update addresses a lot of the inconsistencies (for lack of a better word) introduced with the last update. I'm sure there's still some problems -- please let me know here, or via e-mail, any that you find.

Foul


My site view hasn't updated on the prices...what am I doing wrong? It doesn't show any of the new pricing updates. The other updates noted are visible, just not anything from the Index.
.


Whoops, found the problem, I had to clean out all my cookies (mmmm, cookies) and enter the Acaeum site in again to get to the new valuations. Carry on.  Thanks for the PM Foul, I was just checking in case my email about D1 had gotten lost...

Mike B.

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 5:07 pm 
 

So Harami, when are you going to invest the time you have to start your own D&D collecting website with your own valuations, with an open public forum for other people to criticize the values?  Any day now, I hope, I'm sure it's going to be a big hit.
:lol:

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 5:09 pm 
 

[/sarcasm]

:P

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 5:11 pm 
 

:P

Glad to see things are going more smoothly here, and to be serious the constructive criticism is making the system stronger than it was.  Cheers!

Personally I'm out of the hobby, but I wish everyone the best in future endeavors.  Hit me up for a game sometime if you find me at a con.   :wink:

  


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 5:13 pm 
 

Touché! ;)

Yeah, was long-time, no see... You moving on for sure, then? :(


Take care, ya! :D

  

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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 10:05 pm 
 

As I'm sure many of you have already noticed, things look a bit different now. Despite some "heated" discussions in the past, there were many valid criticisms - some of which echoed my own thoughts . . . some did not . . .

In any case, the board discussed many ideas to help streamline the grading system and place more weight on the lower grade items. This necesitated some reworking of formulas and in some cases that +/- in value is more a function of MINT being eliminated and the scale being adjusted (on Bigby's Tomb for example - no new sales were recorded, but the modified scale has a different effect on the overall value).

I would venture to say that these are no longer "beta" values, though that is not to say that everything is carved in stone. I am sure that future "tweaking" will occur.

The other major factor that has helped to bring some balance is the number of noteworthy auctions that have occured since the beta values were first put forth. The more data that is available, the more I find that the system becomes representative of the current market.

The main impetus of this update was to focus on the high rarity items. With the new framework in place, I hope to incorporate lower rarity items to a greater degree.

I am sure that I could say more, but I'll leave it at that for now. All comments, both harsh and gentle, are welcome . . .

. . . (but keep in mind I have a fragile psyche and am easily traumatized :roll: )

8)


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Post Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 11:22 pm 
 

Has anyone noticed these variances with the D1 description?  If so the D1 section needs to be updated:

Second (Dec 1978):  Monochrome.  Wizard logo is offset from a starburst stating "Official D&D Tournament Module used at GenCon XI".  No ISBN.  Bottom of front cover states "2nd Printing, December 1978".  Some illustration that were present in the First print are now missing: the giant slug on pg 3, the pack lizard and drow on pg 5, the mind flayer on pg 7, the bugbears on pg 10, and the jermlaine on pg 12!  (Thanks to Michael Deaton for this info).

This isn't so...the illustrations are present in the 2nd printings...on all 3 of mine they are....Also, 2nd printing copies have prices of items on the back cover...I suppose someone could have swapped out the booklets at one time, but on ALL three of my copies?  That seems odd


I have the second print copy without the illustations in it. I was asking a while ago if anyone else had one that matched it

D1 2nd print

Mine may be some type of misprint. Anyone else have one missing the illustrations? Any other ideas?

My 1st and 2nd prints both have prices on the back, 3rd and 4th do not, but I didnt see a mention of the prices on the site.

My 4th print has the isbn on the back left also.

Mike
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