Orange B3 Contest
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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 8:45 am 
 

Good points for discussion. Thanks! :)

=
(02 cents thoughts...)

> <bbarsh> wrote:
> Don't be too quick to under value OB3.

Certainly wouldn't do that, but when talking about $1k values for SW'd copies "undervalue" is a relative term I s'pose.

OK, it's still less expensive than a new Ferrari, I s'pose...

> I fell into that trap long ago when in the mid 80s it was selling for around $150-200 at the Gencon auction. I thought those people were nuts.

Might still be! :D

btw. Can you remember how much woodgrains were fetching back then at auction? I asked before, but can't remember anyone's response.

(Wage inflation would take $200 up to about $600 now; somewhat more if converting and reconverting via UK pounds).

> Secondly, it is the only one of its kind - recalled for questionable art, etc.

*nods*.
A very good talking point that'll have people crawling around to have a look once the color of the cover gets their attention! ;)

> Thirdly, I think (and its only a guess) that there are less of these modules floating around than there are the big three and ST1.

Under 100 in theory, yes. On the down side (as noted), they should be mostly high grade, if not in shrinkwrap.
So unless someone wants to corner the market, there are at present sufficient to go around those people willing to spend such sums of money.
Even if all the high flyers want one in shrink and one to "handle"....

> Fourth, it is a real TSR item - unlike PotVQ, etc.

Could be argued either way, I think.
To Joe Public a genuine TSR item should definitely be worth more.
The completist who is aware that the PotVQ is an "official" item as well as being the first module ever (and a darn sight rarer in prime condition) is not going to be held back by that point.

(And despite being a later, non-TSR item, the 1st DG has also recently been worth more than a similar-condition orange B3... that's cold hard cash following the rarity, regardless of publisher).

> All in all, the only reason it has lagged in value (percieved or otherwise) is that it was a mainstream TSR product produced well after the majority of the big dollar modules and stuff like Mr. Woody.

If you take the figures up to the last year, it was perhaps somewhat ahead of the tourney Inverness to which I'd probably agree with the comment that this was "most likely due to the hype and mystique that surrounds it [oB3]".
I'd definitely rate the Inverness (and Tamo) higher and it seems as though that adjustment has been made. (:()

> ST1 is an exception because of its distributorship and location of sale, or lack thereof.

ST1 is just crazy. (But you probably knew I'd say that! :P)

> I'd much rather have a OB3 than ST1 for my collecting purposes - it is more TSR history and lore in my opinion.

Definitely!
For personal purposes, I'd value a VF/NM unshrinked orange B3 at $700-750 and a similar ST1 at $500-600 (albeit fewer of those "make the grade"). Anything above those figures is a "premium" from my perspective.

The fact that ST1 is currently fetching $2,500 doesn't automatically mean oB3 should fetch more, just because we'd both "much rather" have the latter.

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 8:50 am 
 

A few notes.

I an not arguing that OB3 isn't selling for lower prices relative to other high end TSRs, I simply think it is undervalued in relation to those items.

The auction above is meaningless to me. As a collector, I am not buying one that has the "wave" action. I don't care what caused it. Most people are going to assume water damage no matter what the explaination.
Also, previous ownership is over-rated by certain people. Who gives a shit about the previous owner unless you are one of those autograph hounds. I don't care who had it so long as it meets my quality standards. I personally do not worship TSR staff or their croneis...man, I am beginning to sound alot like Deadlord... 8O

I guess I will just make the Fazzlewood analogy with OB3. Fazzle should go for higher bucks than it does. I think OB3 is in that group.


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 8:54 am 
 

harami -
good points, too

But I venture to say that after so many years, the shrinkwrap copies are limited. Back in the day when it came out, collecting wasn't very popular, so people opened them.

I don't remember too many woodies going back then, either. But they were around the $500 range, I think.


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

New modules for your Old School game http://pacesettergames.com/

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 9:01 am 
 

bclarkie wrote:I have got to say I still disagree. Like I said before Paul(Stromber) just sold one a couple months ago in the Tim Jardini auctions.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5173461064

Because of the obvious mitigating factors involved, Stromber's Collectors Trove auctions will almost always do better than a regular sellers auction.

Oh, it was a very nice copy... Thanks for the reminder link! :)
IMHO, Paul is a very strict (veering towards harsh) grader.

Without the underbidder that would have been $810; or a bit higher, had there been any other snipes.
(The underbidder being the same list member (*waves hello*) who was pushed to nearly $800 on that 2nd Chainmail/white box combo ( http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 5183701070 ), then stated the reason he'd gone so high was because of the white box).

Is always fun when the headline figure is used in isolation as the "next step up the ladder", without knowing/cross-checking the history.
Other than the ongoing OCE craziness, the best example of that is possibly the $2,280 record for the 1st print OD&D set.

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 9:17 am 
 

bbarsh wrote:I an not arguing that OB3 isn't selling for lower prices relative to other high end TSRs, I simply think it is undervalued in relation to those items.


Weren't we betting on what we thought that this auction would go for, not what our own perceived value of the item is? :?

bbarsh wrote: Also, previous ownership is over-rated by certain people. Who gives a shit about the previous owner unless you are one of those autograph hounds. I don't care who had it so long as it meets my quality standards. I personally do not worship TSR staff or their croneis...man, I am beginning to sound alot like Deadlord... 8O


I never said that anyone "had to bid higher" or anyone "should bid higher" based on the previous owner, I only said the people DID bid higher because of those factors. Also, trust is a very important factor in bidding and Stromber is one of those sellers that folks are willing to trust, particularly on high end items. The burntwire bros. get the same kind of extra action because of peoples trust factor in them also.


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:05 am 
 

> bbarsh wrote:
> I an not arguing that OB3 isn't selling for lower prices relative to other high end TSRs, I simply think it is undervalued in relation to those items.

Agreed 100% with regards ST1!
(And if anyone would like to claim that a 750-2500 ratio isn't undervaluing the former, please let me know! 8O)

I think when it gets down to the others, there's a lot of "personal preference" creeping in.
For me, the Inverness gets a boost (in terms of what I'd pay) because I DM'd the mod in the old ruined fort above Inverness. Now tell me where that's meant to factor into a logical valuation schema! :D

> The auction above is meaningless to me. As a collector, I am not buying one that has the "wave" action. I don't care what caused it. Most people are going to assume water damage no matter what the explaination.

VERY good point, that, and one I've fortunately not had to face.

S'pose one some has paid a large premium for shrink, they've got little choice but to leave it in there if/when ripples start to develop.
*shudders*

> Also, previous ownership is over-rated by certain people. Who gives a shit about the previous owner unless you are one of those autograph hounds.

At present, I don't think our little group rates "previous ownership" that much. Certainly not compared with many book/comic collectors, anyhow.
(Although I must admit those Tim Jiardini auctions did raise a bit of an eyebrow, trying to split factors).
A Gary Gygax signature barely lifts an eyebrow. Am still surprised that the "autograph hunter's" aspect of the collectors' diaspora is so seriously underdeveloped in the RPG marketplace at present. (Even allowing for most of the newness of the field).

The premium seems, perhaps, to be mostly focused on whose sales they are. Popular items being sold via Burnie Bros. seem to support that view, anyhow. Whereas a total newbie seller is /generally/ going to get less, unless it's a rarity and they are helpful with scans.

> I don't care who had it so long as it meets my quality standards. I personally do not worship TSR staff or their croneis...man, I am beginning to sound alot like Deadlord... 8O

*LOL*! :P

(And personally, I don't go OTT on the quality, either. If you're frightened to touch an item for fear a ding or spine crease is going to knock $100 off it's value, that's a different "collectors" ball-game to the one I'm most comfortable with).

> I guess I will just make the Fazzlewood analogy with OB3. Fazzle should go for higher bucks than it does. I think OB3 is in that group.

Fazzle, 1st DG, yes. And they do.
If oB3 were at $500-550 list, I'd say yes without hesitation.
At present values I'm kinda sitting on the fence, given some of the other recent increases and being unable to determine yet whether the factors at play are short-term or not. ymmv, y'all... ;)

====

> harami -
> good points, too

thx... yours, too :)

> But I venture to say that after so many years, the shrinkwrap copies are limited. Back in the day when it came out, collecting wasn't very popular, so people opened them.

Don't know how many of those SW'd ones were recycled on eBay but, including a few others elsewhere, should still be in double figures.

Yes, you'd think that since it was known to be a rarity immediately (maybe staff would've opened their copies, but that box was "after the event"), that even more might still be in shrink.
But then, the "difference" is on the inside and the temptation to take a peek may have been too great!

Anyhow; even when collecting was popular, it didn't stop people from going out and trashing their "collector's edition" ST1s: if they could even be bothered buying a copy in the first place! :oops:

> I don't remember too many woodies going back then, either. But they were around the $500 range, I think.

*eeps*. Now /that/ was big money: certainly more than the offers I had.
And presumably, as with other "collectables", condition wasn't quite so important, then.

thx for the info.

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:06 am 
 

bclarkie wrote:Weren't we betting on what we thought that this auction would go for, not what our own perceived value of the item is? :?

Indeed! (US "bids" only, however).

Was just a very good "low friction" thread for discussion, too. ;)

Oh, and that's "guesses for auction realisation", not "perceived value" probably! Unless someone wants to sell The Wraith their copy! :D

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:07 am 
 

bclarkie wrote: Weren't we betting on what we thought that this auction would go for, not what our own perceived value of the item is? :?


That is how I understood it.

bclarkie wrote:I never said that anyone "had to bid higher" or anyone "should bid higher" based on the previous owner, I only said the people DID bid higher because of those factors. Also, trust is a very important factor in bidding and Stromber is one of those sellers that folks are willing to trust, particularly on high end items. The burntwire bros. get the same kind of extra action because of peoples trust factor in them also.


I'll admit, my interest in some items does get influenced by who the original owner was.  That can add a lot of fun to owning an item.  I'm also willing to bid a bit higher if the seller is reputable.  Aren't we all?

As for the orange B3, it's at or near the top of my (modest) collection.  I'd be VERY surprised if there really were 100 - or even the fabled 72 or such - copies floating around out there.

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:19 am 
 

$925

I'll put down an X1 :D

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:28 am 
 

akk.... didn't notice the collision of posts.

*shuffles text down and updates*
*decides green is a better color: sorry!*

<edit> : updates, below.

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:31 am 
 

I guess this won't count, but I'm betting $975.  

I'll put up a pic of my wife rolling around naked on top of my shrinked B3...

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 4:11 pm 
 

grodog wrote:
bbarsh wrote:I think it was Grodog who originally did one of these friendly competitions.


Wasn't me, though I do like the idea. I'll have to ponder what to bid though :D


I think it was GamesGuy (MIA).

  


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 4:16 pm 
 

I'll bet $1001 and an ugly 1st print DMG.

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 4:33 pm 
 

$809

I will send the winning bidder a bunch of stuff - to be determined later.   8)


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 4:58 pm 
 

ifearyeti wrote:I'll bet $1001 and an ugly 1st print DMG.

*g*. Not that one you outbid me on at around $9 by any chance? :P

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 5:35 pm 
 

Yes, I am not allowed to...

... but I'd bet on $ 1.450

Heh

:twisted:


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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 6:21 pm 
 

Weren't we betting on what we thought that this auction would go for, not what our own perceived value of the item is? :?

Yes, we are guessing on actual sale of current item.
Someone...brought up the fact some guesses were way to high and that is where the discussion about relative value kicked in. We digressed ... as these strings tend to do :D


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:05 pm 
 

rosenkav wrote:Yes, I am not allowed to...

... but I'd bet on $ 1.450

Heh

:twisted:

I assume that in Italy you use the comma in place of a period for numerals.  If anyone sees one for $1.45 though, I'm in! ;)

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:35 pm 
 

beyondthebreach wrote:$809

I will send the winning bidder a bunch of stuff - to be determined later.  8)

A good excuse for one of your fabled clear-outs, then?
8) indeed for the winner, if so! ;)

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 11:55 pm 
 

$950 is my guess. Maybe I should sell one from my box of them :wink:

  
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