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Grandstanding Collector

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:07 am 
 

I don't know how to set up a poll, so people can just reply to this post.



What would you personally pay for this item, assuming finances were not an issue?



Lost Tamoachan #4- Cover has 4 small spine creases, extremely light wear along the spine. One small, light brown spot above the griffin's head. Extremely light rubbing in 2 spots on the back, roughly 1/2" diameter each. Lower right corner of folder is slightly crinked, as is lower left corner.

Pages have no writing or damage, 12-14 have a small brown spot that goes thru each page on the lower right side, but does not obscure the writing. Otherwise, pages are crisp and almost unused.


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 6:07 am 
 

Frank,

I take it you dun want a smart-ass comment about who cut the gryphon off the Inverness and stuck it on the Tamo??  :D  8)

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 6:37 am 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:What would you personally pay for this item, assuming finances were not an issue?




Difficult.  These aren't meant to be smart-assed answers...



If finances were not an issue and I new there was no one else in the running, as little as I thought I could get away with.  $750?



If finances were not an issue and I new there were others being offered it, probably well over the odds so that the seller wasn't tempted to try and play us off against each other. $1500



But finances are an issue, so I would tell them to ask someone else.



(Please note that the figures used were for illustrative purposes only and might be way off the mark)

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 6:46 am 
 

I would say, given the description and assuming finances at the time not being an issue, anywhere from $700-$900.


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:18 pm 
 

$1 you pay the s/h charges:D





Well that is due to my finances if I was a rich bitch maybe $700ish

  

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:26 pm 
 

if i had the finances at the time, i would prb go for about $700-750. it may be worth more, but thats prb about as much i could justify myself spending on one individual item, no matter what it is.



  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:30 pm 
 

Ok, I've cheated by now and looked at everyone else's answers, so that might sway my decision.  In all likelihood I don't think I'd spend more than $500 on any collectable, even if I had the money.  So $450-500 for this one.

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:43 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:I don't know how to set up a poll, so people can just reply to this post.



What would you personally pay for this item, assuming finances were not an issue?



Lost Tamoachan #4- Cover has 4 small spine creases, extremely light wear along the spine. One small, light brown spot above the griffin's head. Extremely light rubbing in 2 spots on the back, roughly 1/2" diameter each. Lower right corner of folder is slightly crinked, as is lower left corner.

Pages have no writing or damage, 12-14 have a small brown spot that goes thru each page on the lower right side, but does not obscure the writing. Otherwise, pages are crisp and almost unused.








Is this your copy that you are interested in selling or purely hypothetical? If you are selling, do you have pictures of it? And how much would you like for it?

  

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:02 pm 
 

No, this isn't the copy I have, I wanted to see what the answers were. We have a high of $1,500 and a low of $450. We know it would never go for $450, but the range is what is important.

So, realistically, it is worth $1,500, since everyone else's bids would be destroyed by John's. You can't take the average, which seems around $800, because the Huckster just made it worth $1,500. Do you see?


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:26 pm 
 

You could make the same argument about Superman #1... or anything collectible, for that matter.  Should the fact that I'd only pay $500 for Superman #1 affect its value in the marketplace?  Or that I'd only give you $10,000 for your home (sight unseen, of course)?



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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:43 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:No, this isn't the copy I have, I wanted to see what the answers were. We have a high of $1,500 and a low of $450. We know it would never go for $450, but the range is what is important.

So, realistically, it is worth $1,500, since everyone else's bids would be destroyed by John's. You can't take the average, which seems around $800, because the Huckster just made it worth $1,500. Do you see?




Well Done Frank!  :wink:


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:08 pm 
 

So, realistically, it is worth $1,500, since everyone else's bids would be destroyed by John's. You can't take the average, which seems around $800, because the Huckster just made it worth $1,500. Do you see?




Well, only if you are talking about a very limited time span and circumstance. What if the Huckster is the only person on the planet willing to pay more than $800? Say he buys one for $1500. No one else will pay more than $800 - so is the value for the NEXT copy $800? Or $1500 (which no one will pay)?



Valuation on any non-unique item has to be based on an average, not an isolated abberrant price. Otherwise, you end up with a VERY unstable market, with no item really having a true "value."



Besides that, valuations based on "assuming finances weren't an issue" aren't worth much. If finances weren't an issue, I'd offer $25k for the Robh Ruppel painting I'm trying to get away from the owner. However, if finances weren't an issue, he wouldn't need the money . . . . Real world dollars are the only ones that matter. And that's even more true in the case of the Tamoachan, which isn't a unique item.



Just my $.02!



Pat


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:14 pm 
 

Deadlord36 wrote:No, this isn't the copy I have, I wanted to see what the answers were. We have a high of $1,500 and a low of $450. We know it would never go for $450, but the range is what is important.

So, realistically, it is worth $1,500, since everyone else's bids would be destroyed by John's. You can't take the average, which seems around $800, because the Huckster just made it worth $1,500. Do you see?


Interesting, but I believe you leaped a bit there. The "worth" is the 2nd bidder's price, + one increment. ;) In this case, $925, assuming bclarkie's $900 was the 2nd highest bid, and the increment is ~$25 at this level. The eBay system actually makes a fair bit of sense there, otherwise everything Cougar touched would be worth a million bucks.



Of course, if you really wanted to get accurate, you could wait, ask a lot more people, and calculate the 95th percentile :)

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:24 pm 
 

Heya Pat,



tsrart wrote:Valuation on any non-unique item has to be based on an average, not an isolated abberrant price. Otherwise, you end up with a VERY unstable market, with no item really having a true "value."


With you on that general observation, hence my comment ( acaeum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=17696& ... ght=#17696 ) about "spikes" in auction trends and other people bidding or valuing later off the back of those, without knowing how strong (or weak) the market really is.

Just choosing a "good" day to sell (after a couple of high-rollers have had their annual bonuses, say) would be a greater factor, perhaps.



But for most of the rare items there are only a few auction prices at widely varying grade bands.



Of course, this also affects the price distribution through the grades.

No-one's going to sell a T1st Greyhawk with a picture cut out (goodness knows why! ;)) if they think they'll only get $9 for it.

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:26 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Of course, if you really wanted to get accurate, you could wait, ask a lot more people, and calculate the 95th percentile :)


*nods*. I think that's what Frank's interpretation on the consensus system was. (90th, 95th, whatever, percentile).

It would certainly have value if people answered honestly!

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:31 pm 
 

Harami -



Exactly! And the fewer prices you have, the more important it is to average.



Remember - an item is NOT worth what someone just paid for it - it's worth what the NEXT person will pay for it . . . .





Pat


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 3:41 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:Of course, this also affects the price distribution through the grades.

No-one's going to sell a T1st Greyhawk with a picture cut out (goodness knows why! ;)) if they think they'll only get $9 for it.


Umm, if anyone has a T1st Greyhawk, in any condition, I'll gladly pay $9 for it. :)  Oh...that's not what you meant.

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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 4:35 pm 
 

Agreed, Pat.

And/or backed up by a strong feel for consensus value, IMO.

(With no reason why genuine private sales between collectors couldn't be included if they "sanity check").



tsrart wrote:Remember - an item is NOT worth what someone just paid for it - it's worth what the NEXT person will pay for it . . . .


Is a good quote, that. Thank you :)



Whether it be van Goghs or Beanie Babies ;)



note aside; none of the comments are intended to push prices up, down, or whatever. Is more a matter of confidence, from my perspective.

Just like I'm perfectly happy reading book values (based from a dealer's perspective), knowing that if I were to sell a copy privately or on eBay I wouldn't expect 100% for a run-of-the-mill item. They are useful for "replacement value" for insurance, though.

Knowing the ground rules and that they are built on solid foundations gives the confidence to work within whatever system.



Just my 02 cents again, anyhow!

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 4:38 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Umm, if anyone has a T1st Greyhawk, in any condition, I'll gladly pay $9 for it. :) Oh...that's not what you meant.


Heh, heh. Is definitely one of the things I meant. That $9 T1st ain't gonna happen.

(You might get some staples which claim to have come from a T1st, perhaps. :P).



Both myself and Paul bid very strongly on Tim Jiardini's incomplete copy (hopefully a different one to the forthcoming auction item ;))

  


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Post Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 5:58 pm 
 

I tend to agree with Frank.



The mean, generally speaking, doesn't necessarily exist in the population sampled.  I think the proper way to sample the population is repeatedly through time.  The market value is then not only the highest value a particular buyer is willing to put forth, but in addition to that it is the probability of encountering that buyer at the time of sale.  



So, if one out of 20 buyers is willing to pay $1500, then it's worth that much.  However, you could also say that the probability of selling it for that much the next time around is only 5%, based on the selling history.  Nonetheless, just like with flipping a coin, the probability of encountering such a buyer the second time around should be independent of whether or not such a seller was encountered during the last sale.

  
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