Valuations ^^ • Page 5 • Collecting General • The Acaeum

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Valuations ^^
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deimos3428
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:21 pm

Deadlord36 wrote:I'll take a mint B2 over a VG Tsoj any day. Haven't the prices on B2's been hot at auction lately?

Come on, the valuations can easily be done with member input and common sense. Here's a demo:

Rahasia VG: $700-$800

Character Archaic VG: $200-$300

Fazzlewood VG: $800-$1,000

DG 1st VG: $500+

If anyone wants to argue my valuations, feel free, but do not quote 4 year old auction prices. Give me valid reasons why these prices are off. If anything, they are still low.

It seems a few of you missed my point completely. The valuations are based on eBay final prices. If we need to adjust the algorithm we use in calculating the valuations, fine. But they are based in fact.

Q: What makes an individual Fazzle worth $800-$1,000?

A: Nothing. It is worth that when two individuals (buyer & seller) are willing to exchange it at that price. Before that, it's all conjecture and wishful thinking.

The valuations are not a real-time pricing predictor! They provide a reverse-looking view of eBay prices over time, and they will always appear low in "boom" times, and high in "bust" times. The current algorithm allows them to remain fairly immobile, creating a stable trend line.

Consider what would happen if we took DL36's suggestion and raised Fazzle's valuation to $900. Lots of people might agree that's "what it's worth". There'd be an inevitable bidding war over the next few that came up, with people frantically looking up the "price" on Acaeum, and bumping up a bit to edge out the competition. Fazzles would start selling higher. Much higher. Next year someone might say they're worth $1200 because a few sold for that. Rinse and repeat. I don't know what that's called in economics, but in anthropology we'd call it runaway evolution. 8)

Where they are useful in getting an idea of a trend over time and comparing it to the current market. For example, I reasoned as following:

A VG Tsoj. historically sells for $400-$650, lower in the last year or so. But the current market has been hot, so I knew to start the auction in the high end of that range.

bclarkie
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:27 pm

afoolandhis$ wrote:I think the recent auctions speak for themselves. Some ebay bidders who aren't necessarily members of this site will no doubt use the posted valuations as guidelines when bidding/sniping, but all of us here know what we'd pay to pick up one of the rares. As a consequence, we also have a pretty good sense of what to expect our stuff to go for.

Example: before he put his Tsojconth up on ebay, I think Deimos may have been a bit concerned about the hit they took in the recent valuations update, but in the end he got more for it than what it was listed at.

Stephen, you make an excellent point. The thing is that these values will go up based on recent auctions, but the most recent updates were made as of 6/2005 so those values were not included.

"He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." -Neitzche

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:49 pm

bclarkie wrote:
Example: before he put his Tsojconth up on ebay, I think Deimos may have been a bit concerned about the hit they took in the recent valuations update, but in the end he got more for it than what it was listed at.

saying that....if i really want something, i couldnt give a rats crap what the valuation is, i want it and so will bid whatever it takes to get it. i think to a degree, it goes like that for a lot of ppl, especially among the very rare items.

Al

Are we nearly there yet?

bclarkie
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:17 pm

killjoy32 wrote: saying that....if i really want something, i couldnt give a rats crap what the valuation is, i want it and so will bid whatever it takes to get it. i think to a degree, it goes like that for a lot of ppl, especially among the very rare items.

Al

Al, that is true in a lot of cases(once again myself included), but the valuations are simply a guide as to what you can expect to spend(as buyer)/collect(as a seller) on a given item based on its condition and its previous sales history. The valuations are in no means a way of telling someone what they should pay or not pay, it is just a guide.

"He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you." -Neitzche

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:23 pm

bclarkie wrote: The valuations are in no means a way of telling someone what they should pay or not pay, it is just a guide.

its not that i do or don't agree with you, but you try telling the vast majority out there that "its just a guide" .... aint happening chummer

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Beyondthebreach
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:25 pm

Actually, Killjoy's statement is right on. Valuations are based on what people want to pay. That is the whole point. It is the very process of someone bidding "what they want because they want it" that makes a value go up in the first place.

If one person bids $360 for a Dragon #1 it may be an anomaly. If the next 5 bidders feel the same way, then the value goes up.

Values tell you what has been bid. The buyers determine the value.

The tail doesn't wag the dog.

"Gleemonex makes it feel like it's seventy-two degrees in your head... all... the... time! "

johnhuck
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:03 pm

I've stopped making personal comments about valuations (I think!)

But here are a couple of observations.

killjoy32 wrote:....if i really want something, i couldnt give a rats crap what the valuation is, i want it and so will bid whatever it takes to get it.

eBay.com Item Bid History

And

viewtopic.php?p=31546#31546

viewtopic.php?p=31901#31901

No offence intended to anyone.

But make of these what you will.

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:33 pm

johnhuck wrote:
viewtopic.php?p=31546#31546

viewtopic.php?p=31901#31901

well fwiw, i was gonna bid more than that....but i thought i would get em for that in the end.....

next time, believe me, i will be bidding a fair bit more than that - no bloody museum in florida is gonna get em next time!

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johnhuck
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:36 pm

killjoy32 wrote:next time, believe me, i will be bidding a fair bit more than that - no bloody museum in florida is gonna get em next time!

Next time you might not need to. :wink:

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:40 pm

johnhuck wrote:
killjoy32 wrote:next time, believe me, i will be bidding a fair bit more than that - no bloody museum in florida is gonna get em next time!

Next time you might not need to.

we shall see. these are top of my list of "wants" now.

btw john, i have duplicates of #22 #23 and #24 ok

Al

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johnhuck
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:45 pm

killjoy32 wrote:
johnhuck wrote:
Next time you might not need to.

we shall see. these are top of my list of "wants" now.

btw john, i have duplicates of #22 #23 and #24 ok

Al

I can trade a TC#9 if thats any use?

harami2000
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:48 pm

johnhuck wrote:
killjoy32 wrote:btw john, i have duplicates of #22 #23 and #24 ok

Al

I can trade a TC#9 if thats any use?

Ain't that usually the problem with fanzine swaps? The holes are almost always larger than the dups.

(erm, thread overflow...)

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:53 pm

harami2000 wrote:
(erm, thread overflow...)

oh yeah...sorry chummer...

john i will PM you mate

Al

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harami2000
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:08 pm

killjoy32 wrote:oh yeah...sorry chummer...

John's point is still valid, however, as noted before (02c, only).

If two people want an auction and have the cash, it has the potential to go sky high-- this should not mean that there's been a sudden change in "underlying" "value" (unless, possibly, it is an ultra-rare item).

*

If an identical item comes up again, you would expect the price to be "back to normal" unless there's been a "mental shift" in the collecting community (for no particularly good reason) or the previous winner pushes the bidding to defend their investment.

The level of underlying support is far more difficult to determine than just the "headline" prices, but is probably a better indication of real demand/"value".

For example, a VGish OCE box has strong demand at $50, a degree of competition at $80 and an occasional mad contest at silly prices. Most people will probably only notice the higher realisations...

(And eBay is only ever an indication of what the 2nd highest bid is, including any crazy snipes, "bad days", missed items, etc.).

johnhuck
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:12 pm

harami2000 wrote:(And eBay is only ever an indication of what the 2nd highest bid is

+ the standard increment :wink:

(unless you're very good at "reading" other peoples bids)

harami2000
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:27 pm

johnhuck wrote:
harami2000 wrote:(And eBay is only ever an indication of what the 2nd highest bid is

+ the standard increment (unless you're very good at "reading" other peoples bids)

yup

killjoy32
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:31 pm

harami2000 wrote:
johnhuck wrote:
+ the standard increment (unless you're very good at "reading" other peoples bids)

yup

well nobody read my bid on them beholders....i thought hey aint gonna give david another angle on analysing me

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harami2000
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Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:35 pm

killjoy32 wrote:well nobody read my bid on them beholders....i thought hey aint gonna give david another angle on analysing me

Another issue with eBay realisations.

No sitting down around the table and agreeing the highest price someone is willing to pay (or where the "support level" would be, should several copies/items become available within a reasonable period of time).

It's mostly "wishful sniping" and "best guessing", especially towards the top-end and am sure none of us have ever said "I wish I'd bid $10 more" after the auction has closed.

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