C1 Lost Tamoachan and C2 The Ghost Tower of Inverness
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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:19 pm 
 

GAH!  8O

  


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:19 pm 
 

deimos3428 wrote:
invincibleoverlord wrote:I hear you……………………..I wonder if I'll fail my surprise check and not guess who going to show up for this one. Frank must be biting his nails

I'm tempted to nudge it just to see it move...but I can't afford to win. ;)

Well, no worries there...holy crap.  8O

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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:22 pm 
 

My bid of $879.87 didn't even come close. It didn't even make the gate. Congrats ajeff you got one.


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:27 pm 
 

Congrats Frank, a new record on Inverness by $50, too. :)

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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:27 pm 
 

It's a new record according to the Acaeum. I'll bring this point up real quick again. How often does Scott update the auction prices? Our Pharaoh, POTVQ auction prices + the rash of Tosj's have yet to be listed. Just curious…..


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:29 pm 
 

a2jeff is on a rampage today.

  


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:31 pm 
 

tim66 wrote:a2jeff is on a rampage today.

No kidding.  Congrats on both wins (so far).  Let's see if he tops it off with the RPGAs...

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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:39 pm 
 

Unbelievable. This really is better than watching a movie...

  


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:40 pm 
 

Frank, you're buying the drinks tonight. Ajeff's making up for his losses…..go Jeff go


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:42 pm 
 

tim66 wrote:Unbelievable. This really is better than watching a movie...

Well, I think we're at intermission now for a little over an hour.  :D

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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:08 pm 
 

The prices are updated along with the site.  As the last site update was August....

I have most, if not all, of these recent rares sales recorded on the master copy here.  There's also a major estimated value revision coming, too.

Foul

  


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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:15 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote:The prices are updated along with the site.  As the last site update was August....

I have most, if not all, of these recent rares sales recorded on the master copy here.  There's also a major estimated value revision coming, too.

Foul

Am sure you know my thoughts from before, Scott.
I wonder how many people here will simply presume "major upwards", thus pushing further towards a "bubble economy". Human nature...

Could you please clarify sooner rather than later, since you do have extreme leverage in such matters.

I also trust you're well aware that deals being done privately are generally /not/ going to the same knee-jerk "gold rush" pattern?

Thanks,
David.

  

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Post Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:34 pm 
 

harami2000 wrote:I also trust you're well aware that deals being done privately are generally /not/ going to the same knee-jerk "gold rush" pattern?

Thanks,
David.


Always the wise man of the forum, eh David *nods*

This statement is very true ....

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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 2:53 am 
 

harami2000 wrote:I wonder how many people here will simply presume "major upwards", thus pushing further towards a "bubble economy". Human nature...

Nope, not necessarily.  The value changes will more accurately reflect recent sale prices -- up OR down.  In general, the more common items have seen a devaluation in the last year or two, while rare prices have been increasing.

Usually, the people who clamor loudest about rising values are the ones who don't have rare items, and feel that they're being priced out of the market.  While the issue of whether the RPG market is in a "bubble" (as opposed to an upward trend) is certainly debatable, the fact remains that people are paying higher than Acaeum values for rares nowadays.  Our aim is to reflect market realities, whether or not we believe those values are sustainable.

While I don't want to go into the new valuations in detail right now, I assure you that they will be tied much more closely to actual sale prices, and less to guesses and estimations, than they are now.  Additionally, I will personally have zero say in what those valuations are.  More to come.

Could you please clarify sooner rather than later, since you do have extreme leverage in such matters.

No estimate on the update's arrival.  I still have a lot of work to do on it, and very little free time.  I promise that the delay is not part of some master plan to do... I don't know what.  Something evil.

I also trust you're well aware that deals being done privately are generally /not/ going to the same knee-jerk "gold rush" pattern?

Private sales are generally not factored into market valuations, precisely because they're NOT part of the market.  If somebody wants to sell you their PotVQ for $50, that's their loss, because free-market competition would result in a much higher price.

To respond to an earlier message, *I* am the one who recently acquired a 1st edition Chainmail in a private transaction (though there may have been another that you were referring to).  While I will not disclose the terms of that deal, I assure you, you would probably be astounded at how much I paid for it.  In effect, I'm putting my money where my mouth is concerning where *I* believe this market is headed -- and it's not down.  :)

Foul

  


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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 3:19 am 
 

FoulFoot wrote:Private sales are generally not factored into market valuations, precisely because they're NOT part of the market.

You jest, surely!

Frank's rares (for example) were offered openly to the board, first.
To say these aren't "part of the market" is pretty crazy, IMHO.

FoulFoot wrote:In general, the more common items have seen a devaluation in the last year or two,

Difficult to know whether to take that as a sign of healthiness of the hobby, as a whole.
Certainly, it has seems to have become a bit more polarised with investor-collectors kicking in, top-end, more recently.

FoulFoot wrote:Usually, the people who clamor loudest about rising values are the ones who don't have rare items, and feel that they're being priced out of the market. While the issue of whether the RPG market is in a "bubble" (as opposed to an upward trend) is certainly debatable, the fact remains that people are paying higher than Acaeum values for rares nowadays.

As a blanket statement, that's simply not true. I paid well under your "list value" for that 2nd print woodgrain, not long ago.
And that 3rd print PoTVQ was lower, too...

Not sure I've heard much "clamoring", either!
Well, not until you "devalue" the "assets" of all those people who only have common-medium items, anyhow... :)

(Looking forward to seeing Dragons #40 upwards listed at $1-2 each, in line with the "market place").

FoulFoot wrote:To respond to an earlier message, *I* am the one who recently acquired a 1st edition Chainmail in a private transaction (though there may have been another that you were referring to).  While I will not disclose the terms of that deal, I assure you, you would probably be astounded at how much I paid for it.  In effect, I'm putting my money where my mouth is concerning where *I* believe this market is headed -- and it's not down.  :)

*shrugs*.
Whatever; I'm outta here... Too many bad vibes :P


Take care, y'all!  :wink:

  


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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 8:59 am 
 

[lots of good points by two people who know what they're talking about snipped] :D
harami2000 wrote:Not sure I've heard much "clamoring", either!
Well, not until you "devalue" the "assets" of all those people who only have common-medium items, anyhow... :)

(Looking forward to seeing Dragons #40 upwards listed at $1-2 each, in line with the "market place").

Well, allow me to "clamor".  This stuff is way too expensive at the moment.  If the Acaeum valuations drop, the little guys will win out.  (The resellers have a right to be really upset if this happens.)  My main point, even though they shouldn't, people take the Acaeum valuations far too literally.
harami2000 wrote:*shrugs*.
Whatever; I'm outta here... Too many bad vibes :P

Take care, y'all!  :wink:

I hope that was "I'm outta here" as in "I've got somewhere to go, see you later" not "outta here" as in "You can all bite me, losers."  8O

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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 10:15 am 
 

Well, allow me to "clamor". This stuff is way too expensive at the moment. If the Acaeum valuations drop, the little guys will win out. (The resellers have a right to be really upset if this happens.) My main point, even though they shouldn't, people take the Acaeum valuations far too literally.


I don't think that people take the Acaeum valuations too literally.  Testament to this is the recent sales that we have seen of numerous rares.  They all have exceeded the valuations listed on the Acaeum considerable.  As Foul stated, the Acaeum valuations are supposed to reflect the historical valuation trends over time.  Doesn't mean that those values will always be reflective of spot prices.  Rather, the values represent a "smoothed out" trend line of these valuations over time.

That being said, The Acaeum is a wonderful source for capturing the state of our hobby/passion.  Just think what the world would be like without it!  I remember wandering aimlessly...  We probably wouldn't be having these discussions 8O

Thanks Foul :!: :!:

  


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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 10:22 am 
 

dbartman wrote:
Well, allow me to "clamor". This stuff is way too expensive at the moment. If the Acaeum valuations drop, the little guys will win out. (The resellers have a right to be really upset if this happens.) My main point, even though they shouldn't, people take the Acaeum valuations far too literally.


I don't think that people take the Acaeum valuations too literally.  Testament to this is the recent sales that we have seen of numerous rares.  They all have exceeded the valuations listed on the Acaeum considerable.  As Foul stated, the Acaeum valuations are supposed to reflect the historical valuation trends over time.  Doesn't mean that those values will always be reflective of spot prices.  Rather, the values represent a "smoothed out" trend line of these valuations over time.

That being said, The Acaeum is a wonderful source for capturing the state of our hobby/passion.  Just think what the world would be like without it!  I remember wandering aimlessly...  We probably wouldn't be having these discussions 8O

Thanks Foul :!: :!:

You ever wonder why wandering monsters wander?  Because they don't have great websites like the Acaeum.  I can't agree more on your last point.

I think we were talking about two different groups of people in regards to the valuations...but clamoring on aimlessly is what Sunday mornings are all about. :)

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Post Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 12:04 pm 
 

I know exactly what he means, and he does have a point. Putting up auction/sales histories is fine, and if you compute values by those histories, that is fine as well, but at this particular juncture, is a mint Fazzle really worth $750? If anyone believes so, I'll gladly give you $800 for yours.
The pricing for the most part hasn't changed in many years. I understand it is very time-consuming to go thru each item and update the prices, but it would probably be better to strip prices out entirely until a consistent set could be worked up. Or have no valuations at all, and let the market determine what something goes for.


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